上周美國(guo)股(gu)市大幅下(xia)跌的蝴(hu)蝶效應波(bo)及國(guo)內商(shang)品(pin)期(qi)貨(huo)(huo)市場(chang)，避(bi)險情(qing)緒快(kuai)速升溫(wen)導致滬膠期(qi)貨(huo)(huo)延續下(xia)跌走勢，主力1805合約(yue)行至13000元/噸后(hou)未(wei)見止步跡象。由(you)于短期(qi)膠價過(guo)快(kuai)下(xia)行，空頭獲利(li)豐厚，其獲利(li)了結意愿明(ming)顯增(zeng)強。

　　近(jin)一(yi)周以來，滬膠1805合約總持(chi)(chi)倉量(liang)呈現溫和縮小景象，多空前(qian)20席(xi)(xi)位(wei)的(de)持(chi)(chi)倉量(liang)也同步減少，只(zhi)是空頭(tou)(tou)減持(chi)(chi)力度(du)強于(yu)多頭(tou)(tou)。交易(yi)所持(chi)(chi)倉數據(ju)(ju)顯示，多頭(tou)(tou)前(qian)20席(xi)(xi)位(wei)的(de)持(chi)(chi)倉量(liang)從2月(yue)2日(ri)(ri)的(de)112902手(shou)(shou)(shou)下(xia)降至2月(yue)9日(ri)(ri)的(de)103400手(shou)(shou)(shou)，累計減少9502手(shou)(shou)(shou)；空頭(tou)(tou)前(qian)20席(xi)(xi)位(wei)的(de)持(chi)(chi)倉量(liang)從2月(yue)2日(ri)(ri)的(de)155239手(shou)(shou)(shou)下(xia)降至2月(yue)9日(ri)(ri)的(de)140026手(shou)(shou)(shou)，累計減少15213手(shou)(shou)(shou)。滬膠價格短期內跌(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)明顯，高升水問題得到緩解，空頭(tou)(tou)進一(yi)步施壓的(de)動力減弱。在膠價接(jie)近(jin)12000元(yuan)/噸時(shi)，前(qian)20席(xi)(xi)位(wei)的(de)凈空頭(tou)(tou)寸出現下(xia)滑(hua)。數據(ju)(ju)顯示，滬膠1805合約前(qian)20席(xi)(xi)位(wei)的(de)凈空持(chi)(chi)倉量(liang)自2月(yue)2日(ri)(ri)的(de)42339手(shou)(shou)(shou)大幅(fu)(fu)(fu)下(xia)降至2月(yue)9日(ri)(ri)的(de)36626手(shou)(shou)(shou)，凈減5713手(shou)(shou)(shou)，降幅(fu)(fu)(fu)為13.49%。

　　單日(ri)持(chi)(chi)倉上，2月9日(ri)，滬膠1805合(he)約(yue)前20席位中，多(duo)(duo)空雙(shuang)方(fang)均呈(cheng)大幅(fu)減(jian)持(chi)(chi)現象，但空頭減(jian)持(chi)(chi)力度強于多(duo)(duo)頭。其中，多(duo)(duo)頭累(lei)計(ji)減(jian)倉5820手，空頭累(lei)計(ji)減(jian)倉10149手。

　　具體來看，空頭前20席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)中(zhong)，減(jian)(jian)持(chi)的席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)達(da)到17家，增(zeng)持(chi)的席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)僅(jin)有3家。其中(zhong)，永安(an)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)、中(zhong)信期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)、海通期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)和(he)興證期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)分(fen)(fen)別減(jian)(jian)少(shao)1447手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、1230手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、1205手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)和(he)1155手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)。同時，國貿期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)、銀(yin)河(he)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)、國泰君安(an)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)、申萬期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)、廣發期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)、東證期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)、瑞達(da)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)、華泰期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)、大地期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)、中(zhong)銀(yin)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)和(he)南華期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)減(jian)(jian)持(chi)力(li)度也較為明顯，分(fen)(fen)別減(jian)(jian)少(shao)593手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、573手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、458手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、618手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、429手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、449手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、449手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、347手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、437手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、391手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)和(he)374手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)。而(er)增(zeng)持(chi)方面(mian)，只有中(zhong)糧期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)和(he)方正中(zhong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)席(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)位(wei)(wei)分(fen)(fen)別增(zeng)持(chi)183手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)和(he)192手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)，略微突出(chu)。

　　多頭前(qian)20席(xi)位(wei)(wei)中，減(jian)持(chi)(chi)的席(xi)位(wei)(wei)占17家(jia)，增持(chi)(chi)的席(xi)位(wei)(wei)有3家(jia)。其中，銀河(he)期(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)、方正(zheng)中期(qi)(qi)期(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)、光大期(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)、南華期(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)和(he)瑞達(da)期(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)減(jian)持(chi)(chi)力度居前(qian)，分別(bie)減(jian)少(shao)1202手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、900手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、695手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、636手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)和(he)604手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)。同時，永安(an)期(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)、國(guo)(guo)投(tou)安(an)信期(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)、徽商(shang)期(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)、中國(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)際期(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)、魯證期(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)、中大期(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)和(he)浙商(shang)期(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)減(jian)持(chi)(chi)力度也較(jiao)為(wei)明(ming)顯，分別(bie)減(jian)少(shao)449手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、478手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、259手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、244手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、284手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、235手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)和(he)182手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)。而增持(chi)(chi)方面，只有海通期(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)、宏源期(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)和(he)國(guo)(guo)海良時期(qi)(qi)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)席(xi)位(wei)(wei)分別(bie)增加425手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)、263手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)和(he)139手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)，較(jiao)為(wei)明(ming)顯。

　　國內(nei)割(ge)膠(jiao)成(cheng)本(ben)在(zai)12000元(yuan)/噸，隨(sui)著1805合(he)約向該價(jia)位(wei)的靠攏，空頭(tou)施(shi)壓(ya)的力度減弱。考慮到短期滬膠(jiao)價(jia)格跌幅明顯，空頭(tou)減持頭(tou)寸出局(ju)意愿增(zeng)強。未來，滬膠(jiao)1805合(he)約有望在(zai)12000元(yuan)/噸附(fu)近獲(huo)得支撐而止跌企穩。（作者單位(wei)：寶(bao)城期貨）