申萬宏源-建議增配火電板塊
研(yan)究報告內容摘要:
本期投資提示:
公用事業(ye)(ye)板(ban)(ban)塊年(nian)初(chu)至(zhi)(zhi)今大(da)(da)幅(fu)跑輸(shu)大(da)(da)盤(pan),一季(ji)度盈(ying)(ying)利能力(li)改善(shan)有(you)望(wang)迎來(lai)配置行(xing)情(qing)。2019 年(nian)年(nian)初(chu)至(zhi)(zhi)2 月22 日,上(shang)證指數(shu)(shu)上(shang)漲12.44%,滬深(shen)300 上(shang)漲16.92%。同期公用事業(ye)(ye)(申(shen)(shen)萬)、電力(li)(申(shen)(shen)萬)以(yi)及火(huo)電(申(shen)(shen)萬)指數(shu)(shu)分別上(shang)漲6.28%、6.03%和3.74%,大(da)(da)幅(fu)跑輸(shu)大(da)(da)盤(pan)。申(shen)(shen)萬一級行(xing)業(ye)(ye)分類中,公用事業(ye)(ye)板(ban)(ban)塊年(nian)初(chu)至(zhi)(zhi)今漲幅(fu)排(pai)名倒數(shu)(shu)第二位。我們認(ren)為,減(jian)費(fei)降稅政策的(de)推進(jin)以(yi)及煤價(jia)下跌的(de)趨勢,有(you)望(wang)顯著改善(shan)火(huo)電行(xing)業(ye)(ye)盈(ying)(ying)利能力(li),火(huo)電板(ban)(ban)塊有(you)望(wang)迎來(lai)配置良(liang)機。
宏觀經濟下(xia)行(xing)壓(ya)力(li)(li)(li)仍然較大(da),增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)值(zhi)(zhi)稅(shui)(shui)改革有(you)望(wang)加速推(tui)出。當(dang)前火電(dian)(dian)(dian)處(chu)于(yu)(yu)盈(ying)利(li)低點,增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)值(zhi)(zhi)稅(shui)(shui)下(xia)調對(dui)于(yu)(yu)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)企業(ye)(ye)的(de)盈(ying)利(li)彈性可達10%-20%。自身盈(ying)利(li)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)越差的(de)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)公(gong)司(si),對(dui)于(yu)(yu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)值(zhi)(zhi)稅(shui)(shui)下(xia)調的(de)業(ye)(ye)績(ji)彈性越大(da)。其(qi)中(zhong),華能(neng)(neng)(neng)國際、華電(dian)(dian)(dian)國際、深(shen)圳能(neng)(neng)(neng)源、皖能(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)、吉電(dian)(dian)(dian)股份等(deng)公(gong)司(si)對(dui)于(yu)(yu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)值(zhi)(zhi)稅(shui)(shui)下(xia)調業(ye)(ye)績(ji)彈性較大(da)。水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)主要成本為人力(li)(li)(li)成本與折舊(jiu),均無法產生可供抵扣的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)值(zhi)(zhi)稅(shui)(shui)進項稅(shui)(shui)額,與其(qi)他行(xing)業(ye)(ye)相比水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)值(zhi)(zhi)稅(shui)(shui)負擔整體(ti)偏高;與此同時,水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)一(yi)般(ban)而言盈(ying)利(li)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)較好。綜合兩方(fang)面(mian)因(yin)素(su),水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)對(dui)于(yu)(yu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)值(zhi)(zhi)稅(shui)(shui)下(xia)調的(de)業(ye)(ye)績(ji)彈性適中(zhong),增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)值(zhi)(zhi)稅(shui)(shui)下(xia)調1%,水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)公(gong)司(si)盈(ying)利(li)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)厚(hou)2-3%。
煤(mei)(mei)炭供給側(ce)改革以來,2018 年(nian)(nian)Q4 電煤(mei)(mei)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)首次同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang),2019 年(nian)(nian)有望延(yan)續煤(mei)(mei)價(jia)(jia)下跌趨勢(shi)。2018 年(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)平(ping)均電煤(mei)(mei)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)約531 元/噸(dun),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)2017 年(nian)(nian)均值上(shang)升(sheng)2.9%。直(zhi)至(zhi)2018 年(nian)(nian)Q4,煤(mei)(mei)價(jia)(jia)首次同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)2.4%。2019 年(nian)(nian)1 月全國電煤(mei)(mei)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)指數為511 元/噸(dun),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)2018年(nian)(nian)1 月下降(jiang)6.94%,環比(bi)(bi)2018 年(nian)(nian)12 月下降(jiang)2.14%,延(yan)續2018Q4 以來的(de)下降(jiang)趨勢(shi)。分地區看,海(hai)(hai)南、上(shang)海(hai)(hai)、福(fu)建、江(jiang)蘇(su)、江(jiang)西等省份(fen)降(jiang)幅較大,同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)降(jiang)幅超過10%。
隨著(zhu)節(jie)(jie)后復(fu)工(gong)(gong)用電需求回升(sheng),六(liu)(liu)大(da)發電集團日耗觸底回升(sheng),電廠(chang)(chang)煤(mei)炭庫(ku)(ku)存仍(reng)處高位。2019年春節(jie)(jie)較2018 年早(zao)近半(ban)個月(yue),1 月(yue)起工(gong)(gong)廠(chang)(chang)提前停工(gong)(gong)放假,六(liu)(liu)大(da)電企(qi)煤(mei)炭日均煤(mei)耗即大(da)幅(fu)降(jiang)低。隨著(zhu)節(jie)(jie)后復(fu)工(gong)(gong),2 月(yue)上(shang)旬耗煤(mei)量快(kuai)速上(shang)升(sheng)。進入供暖季以來,因電廠(chang)(chang)被(bei)動接受(shou)長協煤(mei),六(liu)(liu)大(da)電企(qi)煤(mei)炭庫(ku)(ku)存可用天數1 月(yue)份開始快(kuai)速上(shang)行,一度(du)突破(po)45 天。截至(zhi)2 月(yue)22 日,六(liu)(liu)大(da)發電集團煤(mei)炭庫(ku)(ku)存可用天數約(yue)28 天,仍(reng)處于(yu)歷史高位。
綜合考慮電(dian)廠庫(ku)存(cun)偏高、安全整改(gai)的煤礦陸(lu)續復產,以及煤炭供需逐步偏松(song),我(wo)們預計一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度煤價(jia)有望保持2018 年四(si)季(ji)度以來的下行(xing)趨(qu)勢。以1 月電(dian)煤價(jia)格指數漲跌幅測(ce)算(suan)對主(zhu)要煤電(dian)上市公(gong)司(si)Q1 業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)績(ji)(ji)彈性(xing)(xing)影(ying)響(xiang)。煤價(jia)變(bian)動帶來的業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)績(ji)(ji)彈性(xing)(xing)最大的是內蒙華電(dian),因2018年一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度公(gong)司(si)微利(li),基數低導致公(gong)司(si)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)績(ji)(ji)彈性(xing)(xing)顯著(zhu)超過(guo)(guo)100%。對皖能電(dian)力的業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)績(ji)(ji)彈性(xing)(xing)影(ying)響(xiang)超過(guo)(guo)70%。華能國(guo)際(ji)、華電(dian)國(guo)際(ji)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)績(ji)(ji)增長彈性(xing)(xing)均超過(guo)(guo)50%。江蘇國(guo)信、浙能電(dian)力的業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)績(ji)(ji)彈性(xing)(xing)影(ying)響(xiang)約(yue)30~40%。由于湖北能源水電(dian)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)績(ji)(ji)貢獻比例高,其 Q1 業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)績(ji)(ji)彈性(xing)(xing)約(yue)為6%。
投資建議:如(ru)果(guo)后續降(jiang)低增值稅(shui)的有關政(zheng)策能夠落(luo)地(di)(di),對于(yu)(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力板塊(kuai)整體(ti)屬于(yu)(yu)系統性(xing)利好。我們(men)預計2019 年全國(guo)(guo)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)增速較2018 年將有所回(hui)落(luo)。受特高(gao)壓建設、沿海(hai)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)原煤消(xiao)費(fei)總(zong)量控制、高(gao)耗能產業轉移等因素影響(xiang),2019 年各地(di)(di)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供(gong)需結構(gou)將出現(xian)分化。綜合考慮中西部地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)增速有望保持高(gao)增長,火電(dian)(dian)(dian)板塊(kuai)重點推薦(jian)區(qu)(qu)域(yu)龍(long)(long)頭:內(nei)蒙(meng)華電(dian)(dian)(dian)、皖能電(dian)(dian)(dian)力、湖北(bei)能源,以及(ji)行業龍(long)(long)頭:華能國(guo)(guo)際(ji)、華電(dian)(dian)(dian)國(guo)(guo)際(ji)、國(guo)(guo)投電(dian)(dian)(dian)力。