申萬宏源-化工行業配置建議
本期投資提示:
本周行業觀點:
周(zhou)(zhou)期淡季(ji)(ji)持續(xu),但化工大(da)部(bu)分價格(ge)已處(chu)于低位(wei),已進入左側布局階(jie)段,相對收益(yi)建議配置(zhi)一二線龍頭白(bai)馬,絕對收益(yi)建議關注不受出口(kou)影(ying)響超(chao)跌板塊,如 PVC、純堿(jian)、鈦(tai)白(bai)粉。本(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)主要細分子領(ling)域(yu) PVC、純堿(jian)庫存(cun)(cun)持穩;本(ben)周(zhou)(zhou) PTA 價格(ge)下行,滌綸長絲(si)(si)產銷回落(luo)、行業(ye)庫存(cun)(cun)上(shang)升,本(ben)周(zhou)(zhou) PTA 與 PX 價差、滌綸長絲(si)(si)與原料價差分別(bie)為(wei) 1574、1091 元(yuan)(yuan)。農資采購(gou)力度有所減弱,氮、磷肥價格(ge)弱勢。本(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)聚(ju)(ju)合(he) MDI 國內(nei)市場(chang)主流商談(tan)在 13100 元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun),較上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)上(shang)漲 610 元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun),純 MDI 國內(nei)市場(chang)主流商談(tan)在 19000 元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun),均價較上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)上(shang)漲 1350元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)。下周(zhou)(zhou)進入 8 月(yue)掛牌價公(gong)布期,MDI 價格(ge)有望觸底(di)反彈。萬華子公(gong)司匈牙利寶思德化學(xue)公(gong)司(BorsodChemZrt.)MDI 裝置(zhi)(30 萬噸(dun)/年)、TDI 裝置(zhi)(25 萬噸(dun)/年)將于2019 年 7 月(yue) 8 日開始陸續(xu)停車檢修(xiu),預(yu)計檢修(xiu) 35 天左右。目(mu)前聚(ju)(ju)氨酯產業(ye)鏈 MDI、BDO、己二酸、聚(ju)(ju)醚等產品(pin)價格(ge)均回落(luo)到歷史底(di)部(bu)區(qu)間,靜(jing)待旺季(ji)(ji)以及(ji)出口(kou)需求恢復。
蘇北事件影響未來江蘇省精細化(hua)(hua)(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)及(ji)中(zhong)間(jian)體(ti)格局,只嚴不松,中(zhong)間(jian)體(ti)產(chan)(chan)能有(you)望加速(su)淘汰(tai),龍頭(tou)(tou)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)及(ji)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian)一(yi)(yi)體(ti)化(hua)(hua)(hua)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)有(you)望加速(su)受(shou)益。短期進(jin)入淡季價格弱勢持穩,長(chang)期關注精細化(hua)(hua)(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)龍頭(tou)(tou):染料:浙江龍盛、海翔藥業(ye)(ye)(ye)、閏土股份;農(nong)藥:揚農(nong)化(hua)(hua)(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong),廣信股份、先達(da)股份,百傲化(hua)(hua)(hua)學(xue),利爾化(hua)(hua)(hua)學(xue),利民股份;顏料:百合花;維(wei)生素:新和成;關注長(chang)期受(shou)益集中(zhong)度提升,具備產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian)一(yi)(yi)體(ti)化(hua)(hua)(hua)優勢的龍頭(tou)(tou):園區一(yi)(yi)體(ti)化(hua)(hua)(hua)龍頭(tou)(tou)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye):萬華化(hua)(hua)(hua)學(xue)、華魯恒升、魯西化(hua)(hua)(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong),產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian)一(yi)(yi)體(ti)化(hua)(hua)(hua)龍頭(tou)(tou)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye):揚農(nong)化(hua)(hua)(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(菊(ju)酯(zhi)等(deng)農(nong)藥產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian))、浙江龍盛(染料產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian))、巨化(hua)(hua)(hua)股份(氟化(hua)(hua)(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian))、龍蟒佰利(鈦白(bai)粉產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian))、三友(you)化(hua)(hua)(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)、中(zhong)泰化(hua)(hua)(hua)學(xue)(氯堿粘膠產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian))、金(jin)禾(he)實業(ye)(ye)(ye)(食品添加劑產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian))、新和成(維(wei)生素、香(xiang)(xiang)精香(xiang)(xiang)料產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian))。
日韓(han)電子材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)(liao)(liao)爭端(duan)推(tui)動(dong)自主(zhu)可控主(zhu)題(ti)持續發(fa)(fa)酵,半導體(ti)材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)(liao)(liao)其(qi)他(ta)建議(yi)(yi)關注(zhu)雅克科技(ji)、鼎龍股(gu)份(fen);關注(zhu) OLED 可折疊應用元年,柔性顯示(shi)材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)(liao)(liao)迎變革(ge)機(ji)遇,柔性顯示(shi)材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)(liao)(liao)重點推(tui)薦(jian):有機(ji)發(fa)(fa)光材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)(liao)(liao)重點推(tui)薦(jian):濮(pu)陽惠(hui)成、萬潤股(gu)份(fen)、強(qiang)力新材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai),關注(zhu)飛凱(kai)材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)(liao)(liao);PI 漿料(liao)(liao)(liao),關注(zhu)鼎龍股(gu)份(fen)、時代新材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(PI 膜)。其(qi)他(ta)新材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)(liao)(liao)建議(yi)(yi)關注(zhu)陶瓷及 5G 材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)(liao)(liao)龍頭(tou)國瓷材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)(liao)(liao)、碳纖維(wei)龍頭(tou)光威(wei)復材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)。鋰電材(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)(liao)(liao)建議(yi)(yi)關注(zhu)細分龍頭(tou)恩(en)捷股(gu)份(fen)、光華科技(ji)、新宙邦、道明光學。