證券(quan)時報(bao)網訊，首創證券(quan)認(ren)為，全社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)需求預(yu)計保持(chi)正(zheng)(zheng)增長(chang)，業(ye)績(ji)穩定(ding)(ding)與估(gu)值(zhi)修(xiu)(xiu)復雙安全。根據中電(dian)(dian)聯預(yu)測2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)全社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量同比增長(chang)5%-6%，我(wo)們(men)(men)認(ren)為在(zai)(zai)此預(yu)測基(ji)礎上，煤(mei)炭消費總量2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)仍將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)保持(chi)正(zheng)(zheng)增速，疊加(jia)今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)穩增長(chang)，基(ji)建(jian)、制(zhi)造業(ye)持(chi)續(xu)發力(li)(li)，電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)需求將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)繼續(xu)增長(chang)，煤(mei)炭側產(chan)能(neng)(neng)限制(zhi)短(duan)期無法緩減，價(jia)格(ge)自2021年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)快速上漲以來，價(jia)格(ge)中樞上移已基(ji)本成為共識(shi)，去產(chan)能(neng)(neng)以及(ji)“雙碳”導致的(de)煤(mei)炭固定(ding)(ding)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)投資(zi)(zi)長(chang)期處于低位水(shui)平(ping)，供(gong)給(gei)側目前釋放彈性(xing)仍舊不足，供(gong)給(gei)側未(wei)來約束將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)持(chi)續(xu)存(cun)在(zai)(zai)，煤(mei)企的(de)合理盈利水(shui)平(ping)對于未(wei)來新老能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)更替穩定(ding)(ding)具有(you)重要作用(yong)(yong)，我(wo)們(men)(men)預(yu)計2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)煤(mei)炭價(jia)格(ge)或將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)有(you)望(wang)維(wei)持(chi)2021年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)均水(shui)平(ping)，高業(ye)績(ji)水(shui)平(ping)預(yu)計今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)可維(wei)持(chi)，目前優質煤(mei)炭上市(shi)公(gong)司普遍在(zai)(zai)8-9倍(bei)的(de)低PE估(gu)值(zhi)水(shui)平(ping)，展望(wang)后市(shi)我(wo)們(men)(men)認(ren)為煤(mei)炭股(gu)2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)有(you)望(wang)業(ye)績(ji)超預(yu)期以及(ji)估(gu)值(zhi)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)有(you)一定(ding)(ding)的(de)修(xiu)(xiu)復空(kong)間(jian)，業(ye)績(ji)與估(gu)值(zhi)修(xiu)(xiu)復雙重因素疊加(jia)，配置(zhi)優勢明顯。