日前(qian),平安銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)、南京(jing)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)分別公告260億元(yuan)可轉債發行(xing)和(he)140億元(yuan)定增計(ji)劃(hua);上(shang)海銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)200億元(yuan)優先股(gu)發行(xing)隨后也獲銀(yin)(yin)監會核準;加上(shang)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)市(shi)凈率(PB)估值(zhi)接近1倍,上(shang)市(shi)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)再(zai)融資(zi)(zi)逐漸進入投(tou)資(zi)(zi)者視線。
從A股(gu)和(he)H股(gu)合計(ji)39家上市(shi)銀(yin)行看,除國有大行、華夏銀(yin)行和(he)今年(nian)新(xin)上市(shi)銀(yin)行外,大多于今年(nian)公告或完成再融(rong)資(zi)(zi)計(ji)劃(hua),合計(ji)融(rong)資(zi)(zi)總額5280億元。其(qi)中,新(xin)增再融(rong)資(zi)(zi)主要通(tong)過優先股(gu)、可轉(zhuan)債(zhai)、非公開發行(定增)完成。
整(zheng)體來看,上市銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)對再融資方式的選擇(ze)呈現這些(xie)特點:H股上市銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)和A股次新(xin)股城商(shang)行(xing)(xing)(xing)對優先股發行(xing)(xing)(xing)較為熱(re)衷(zhong);A股新(xin)上市農(nong)商(shang)行(xing)(xing)(xing)和仍處于破凈狀態(tai)的股份(fen)行(xing)(xing)(xing)則(ze)偏好可轉(zhuan)債發行(xing)(xing)(xing);A股早(zao)期上市城商(shang)行(xing)(xing)(xing)及部(bu)分1倍以(yi)上PB的股份(fen)行(xing)(xing)(xing),則(ze)較多通(tong)過定增(zeng)補充核心資本。
招商證券金融行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業首席分析師馬鯤鵬認為,從風險加(jia)權資(zi)產(chan)增速(su)與凈資(zi)產(chan)收益(yi)率(lv)(ROE)兩個(ge)維度看,除部(bu)分已有充分預(yu)期的(de)中小(xiao)銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)外(wai),上(shang)市(shi)銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)并不(bu)存在板塊(kuai)性質的(de)大面積股權再(zai)融資(zi)需(xu)求,“從預(yu)期差(cha)的(de)角度,上(shang)市(shi)銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)股權再(zai)融資(zi)已是‘完成時’”。
股權類融資壓力不大
隨著業(ye)務發展(zhan)及(ji)壞賬的增加,銀行(xing)(xing)核(he)心資(zi)本(ben)不斷被(bei)消耗,加上MPA(宏觀審(shen)慎評估體系)考核(he)帶來的持續資(zi)本(ben)補充壓力,以及(ji)巴(ba)塞爾協(xie)議Ⅲ過渡期臨近(jin)結束,商業(ye)銀行(xing)(xing)“補血”頻(pin)頻(pin)。
按相關(guan)規定,定增(zeng)直接(jie)補(bu)(bu)充(chong)(chong)核心一級資(zi)本,優先股(gu)(gu)用(yong)于(yu)補(bu)(bu)充(chong)(chong)其他一級資(zi)本,可(ke)轉債在轉股(gu)(gu)后可(ke)補(bu)(bu)充(chong)(chong)核心一級資(zi)本,而一級資(zi)本得到補(bu)(bu)充(chong)(chong)也將帶(dai)動資(zi)本充(chong)(chong)足率的整體上(shang)(shang)升。數據顯示(shi),今年以來,已有13家(jia)上(shang)(shang)市銀(yin)行披露(lu)或(huo)完成2440億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)優先股(gu)(gu)發(fa)(fa)行計劃,另有8家(jia)銀(yin)行計劃或(huo)已發(fa)(fa)行合計1640億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)可(ke)轉債,6家(jia)銀(yin)行披露(lu)或(huo)實施(shi)合計規模(mo)近(jin)1200億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)的定增(zeng)計劃。
國泰君安證券(quan)銀行(xing)研究(jiu)團隊認為,在(zai)前期(qi)資(zi)本消耗(hao)過快、近期(qi)因監管從嚴而可(ke)能(neng)補提資(zi)本的背景下,銀行(xing)確有增資(zi)需求,但近期(qi)行(xing)業基本面(mian)穩中向(xiang)好,ROE穩中有升,長(chang)期(qi)看不用擔憂再融資(zi)嚴重攤薄收益。
馬(ma)鯤鵬則稱(cheng),在當前“控(kong)總(zong)量”的監管方向(xiang)下,銀行依靠資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)擴張拉動業(ye)績(ji)增長的時代已結束,對資(zi)(zi)(zi)本金的依賴顯著下降。他(ta)認為(wei),“隨著風(feng)險加權資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)增速的放緩,預計上(shang)市銀行的股權再融資(zi)(zi)(zi)需求將更小(xiao)”。
“總體來看,銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)股(gu)權(quan)類融資(zi)(zi)壓力不大(da)”,中泰證券銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)業(ye)分析師戴志鋒表示。他(ta)認(ren)為,大(da)型(xing)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)和招(zhao)行(xing)資(zi)(zi)本(ben)充足水平(ping)普遍較高(gao),其(qi)內生盈利增長基本(ben)能夠滿(man)足未來資(zi)(zi)本(ben)需求,而一些核心(xin)資(zi)(zi)本(ben)充足率(lv)偏低的中小(xiao)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)也大(da)多公(gong)布了資(zi)(zi)本(ben)補充方案(an),只(zhi)有華夏(xia)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)、天津銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)等少數幾家上市銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)未予公(gong)布。
除股(gu)權類(lei)融資(zi)外,今年已有約60家(jia)銀(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)成功發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)二(er)(er)級資(zi)本債(zhai),用以補(bu)充二(er)(er)級資(zi)本,累計發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)規模達1789.73億元,同比增(zeng)長70.94%。此外還有數家(jia)銀(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)計劃發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)逾(yu)1500億元二(er)(er)級資(zi)本債(zhai)。
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Copyright 2001-2018 China Securities Journal. All Rights Reserved