與(yu)去(qu)年(nian)全(quan)(quan)國財(cai)政(zheng)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)24.8%的(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速相比,今(jin)年(nian)前兩(liang)(liang)個(ge)月全(quan)(quan)國財(cai)政(zheng)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)13.1%的(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速并不樂觀(guan)。而其中降幅(fu)最明(ming)顯的(de)(de)莫(mo)過于與(yu)經濟形勢直(zhi)接掛(gua)鉤(gou)的(de)(de)稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)——前兩(liang)(liang)個(ge)月稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)僅同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)9.5%,較(jiao)去(qu)年(nian)22.6%的(de)(de)稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)下滑明(ming)顯,一些主要稅(shui)種如增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)值(zhi)稅(shui)、營業稅(shui)等增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)均出現大幅(fu)下降。
“今(jin)年開局稅(shui)收(shou)收(shou)入不容樂觀(guan),主要受(shou)經(jing)濟形勢影響。”中(zhong)國社科院財經(jing)戰(zhan)略(lve)研究院院長高培勇認為(wei),受(shou)歐美債務危機進(jin)一步(bu)蔓延,國內部分中(zhong)小企業經(jing)營(ying)困難等(deng)影響,中(zhong)國經(jing)濟增(zeng)(zeng)速正逐步(bu)回落,而增(zeng)(zeng)值稅(shui)改革、上(shang)調(diao)個(ge)稅(shui)起征點以及房地產調(diao)控等(deng)因素,則進(jin)一步(bu)加大對稅(shui)收(shou)影響,前(qian)兩個(ge)月稅(shui)收(shou)增(zeng)(zeng)幅延續去年回落勢頭并降至個(ge)位(wei)數,應引起關(guan)注。
“今年前(qian)兩個(ge)月稅收收入已(yi)經(jing)顯現出全年稅收增(zeng)長(chang)下行(xing)風險加(jia)大的(de)態勢。”財(cai)政(zheng)部財(cai)科所副所長(chang)白景(jing)明對記(ji)者說,今年財(cai)政(zheng)收入壓(ya)力(li)較大,主要由于房地產調(diao)控不放松,經(jing)濟增(zeng)長(chang)率預期值下調(diao),結構性減稅政(zheng)策(ce)力(li)度加(jia)大,以及國際經(jing)濟形勢不容(rong)樂觀。
今(jin)年前(qian)兩個(ge)月(yue)稅(shui)(shui)收降幅最引人關注的是房地(di)產(chan)(chan)營業(ye)稅(shui)(shui)。受商品(pin)房銷售(shou)下(xia)降相應房地(di)產(chan)(chan)營業(ye)稅(shui)(shui)下(xia)降影響,去年四季(ji)度中國(guo)營業(ye)稅(shui)(shui)增(zeng)幅就回落至18.3%,在(zai)此基礎上,今(jin)年前(qian)兩個(ge)月(yue)中國(guo)營業(ye)稅(shui)(shui)增(zeng)幅進一步回落至5.9%,其中,受1至2月(yue)全國(guo)商品(pin)房銷售(shou)額(e)下(xia)降20.9%(銷售(shou)面積(ji)下(xia)降14%)影響,房地(di)產(chan)(chan)營業(ye)稅(shui)(shui)下(xia)降22.7%。
“房(fang)地產(chan)調控政策一方面把房(fang)價打壓下來,但同時(shi)房(fang)地產(chan)成(cheng)交量也萎(wei)縮,肯定(ding)影(ying)響稅(shui)收(shou)。”白景明說。
增(zeng)值(zhi)(zhi)稅(shui)是中國第一大稅(shui),其稅(shui)基大體相當于工業(ye)增(zeng)加值(zhi)(zhi)和商業(ye)增(zeng)加值(zhi)(zhi)。2011年,中國國內(nei)增(zeng)值(zhi)(zhi)稅(shui)增(zeng)長了15.0%,相比(bi)之下(xia)今年前(qian)兩個月國內(nei)增(zeng)值(zhi)(zhi)稅(shui)1.9%的(de)增(zeng)幅(fu)下(xia)降(jiang)明顯。
對此(ci),財政部分(fen)(fen)析說,前兩個(ge)(ge)月(yue)中國成品油(you)、鋼坯鋼材、通用設備、汽車、商業批發等行業增(zeng)值稅下降,主要是(shi)受工(gong)(gong)業增(zeng)加值增(zeng)長放(fang)緩,價格增(zeng)幅(fu)回(hui)(hui)落尤其是(shi)工(gong)(gong)業生(sheng)產者出廠價格漲幅(fu)同比回(hui)(hui)落6.5個(ge)(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點,結構性(xing)減稅等因(yin)素(su)影(ying)響。
此外(wai),財政部數據顯(xian)示(shi),前兩個(ge)(ge)月(yue),中(zhong)國證券(quan)交(jiao)易印花稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收入(ru)(ru)同比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降37%。而(er)受提(ti)高個(ge)(ge)人(ren)所(suo)得(de)(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)工薪所(suo)得(de)(de)(de)(de)減(jian)(jian)除(chu)費用標準減(jian)(jian)收影(ying)響,個(ge)(ge)人(ren)所(suo)得(de)(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)下(xia)降了3.9%。財政部資(zi)料顯(xian)示(shi),這兩個(ge)(ge)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)種占稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收比(bi)(bi)重都比(bi)(bi)較低,去(qu)年證券(quan)交(jiao)易印花稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收入(ru)(ru)同比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降19.4%,而(er)個(ge)(ge)人(ren)所(suo)得(de)(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收入(ru)(ru)同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)25.2%,但四季度實施個(ge)(ge)人(ren)所(suo)得(de)(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)改革(ge)后(hou)工資(zi)薪金(jin)所(suo)得(de)(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)和個(ge)(ge)體工商戶(hu)生(sheng)產(chan)經營(ying)所(suo)得(de)(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)均出現(xian)負增(zeng)長(chang)。
白(bai)景明指出,去年(nian)受國內經濟增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)放緩影(ying)響(xiang),中國稅(shui)收(shou)收(shou)入增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)逐季回落,展望(wang)今(jin)年(nian),一方面經濟增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)態勢不確定(ding)性加大影(ying)響(xiang)企業(ye)稅(shui)收(shou),另一方面由于結構性減稅(shui)政策力度(du)更大,包括(kuo)開展營業(ye)稅(shui)改征增(zeng)(zeng)值稅(shui)試點、提高增(zeng)(zeng)值稅(shui)和營業(ye)稅(shui)起征點、對蔬菜批(pi)發和零(ling)售(shou)企業(ye)免征增(zeng)(zeng)值稅(shui)、對小型微利企業(ye)所得稅(shui)減半征收(shou)等(deng)更多(duo)減稅(shui)舉措必然會(hui)進一步減少稅(shui)收(shou)。
此(ci)外,白景明(ming)認為,目前(qian)中國物(wu)價上漲高峰期已過,今(jin)年(nian)(nian)物(wu)價可(ke)能相對平穩,今(jin)年(nian)(nian)2月份CPI為3.2%,未(wei)來可(ke)能進一步降低,對稅收也有較大減收影響。與此(ci)同時(shi),今(jin)年(nian)(nian)財政收支壓力很(hen)大,除了各項(xiang)保障(zhang)和改善民(min)生的剛性需求(qiu),還(huan)重點增加了國家財政性教育經費投入。
白景(jing)明(ming)表示(shi),今年(nian)預算(suan)報告(gao)確定的全(quan)國財政收入增(zeng)(zeng)幅為(wei)9.5%,支(zhi)出(chu)(chu)增(zeng)(zeng)幅為(wei)14.1%,而前兩個月全(quan)國財政支(zhi)出(chu)(chu)增(zeng)(zeng)幅就高達32.8%。“減稅增(zeng)(zeng)支(zhi)雙重壓(ya)力之下,今年(nian)全(quan)國財政收支(zhi)矛(mao)盾將比較突出(chu)(chu)。”
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