2016和2017年,隨著全(quan)球(qiu)經濟(ji)復蘇步伐的不斷加(jia)快,國(guo)際銀(yin)行業(ye)經營呈現出業(ye)績回暖趨(qu)勢,突(tu)出表現在規模及盈利持(chi)續增(zeng)長,銀(yin)行資本充足率和資產質量繼續改(gai)善。
2017年度《銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)家(jia)》千家(jia)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)排名顯示(shi),2016年全球銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業資(zi)本(ben)實力繼續夯實,千家(jia)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)一級資(zi)本(ben)合計增(zeng)長3.9%至(zhi)7.4萬億美(mei)元,資(zi)產合計回升3.0%至(zhi)113.5萬億美(mei)元。2017年前(qian)三季度,全球系統重(zhong)要(yao)性銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)盈利水(shui)(shui)平(ping)呈現(xian)普遍改善(shan)(shan)趨(qu)勢。我們選(xuan)取美(mei)國(guo)(guo)的(de)花(hua)旗(qi)集(ji)(ji)團、美(mei)國(guo)(guo)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)、摩根(gen)大(da)(da)通(tong),富(fu)國(guo)(guo)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing),英國(guo)(guo)的(de)匯豐控(kong)股、巴(ba)(ba)(ba)克萊(lai)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)、蘇(su)格蘭(lan)皇家(jia)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing),歐洲大(da)(da)陸(lu)的(de)德(de)(de)意志(zhi)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)、法(fa)國(guo)(guo)巴(ba)(ba)(ba)黎銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)、瑞銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)集(ji)(ji)團、桑坦德(de)(de)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing),作為(wei)11家(jia)全球系統重(zhong)要(yao)性金(jin)融機構進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)分析(xi),9家(jia)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)盈利水(shui)(shui)平(ping)同比(bi)上升,美(mei)國(guo)(guo)四大(da)(da)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)凈利潤(run)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)在11家(jia)樣(yang)本(ben)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)中遙(yao)遙(yao)領(ling)先。2017年前(qian)三季度各(ge)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)信貸質量總(zong)體(ti)延(yan)續改善(shan)(shan)趨(qu)勢,不(bu)良貸款余額和(he)(he)(he)不(bu)良率(lv)普遍雙降。截至(zhi)9月末,美(mei)國(guo)(guo)四大(da)(da)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)不(bu)良貸款率(lv)均已(yi)(yi)降至(zhi)1%以(yi)(yi)下,整個美(mei)國(guo)(guo)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業不(bu)良率(lv)為(wei)1.2%,同比(bi)下降0.25%。同時四行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)撥(bo)備覆(fu)蓋(gai)率(lv)進(jin)一步提升,花(hua)旗(qi)集(ji)(ji)團和(he)(he)(he)摩根(gen)大(da)(da)通(tong)保持(chi)在200%以(yi)(yi)上,美(mei)國(guo)(guo)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)和(he)(he)(he)富(fu)國(guo)(guo)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)也超過(guo)100%。歐洲主要(yao)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)中,巴(ba)(ba)(ba)克萊(lai)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)、匯豐控(kong)股、德(de)(de)意志(zhi)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)不(bu)良率(lv)已(yi)(yi)降至(zhi)1.6%左右水(shui)(shui)平(ping),蘇(su)格蘭(lan)皇家(jia)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)降至(zhi)3%以(yi)(yi)內(nei),巴(ba)(ba)(ba)黎銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)、桑坦德(de)(de)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)降至(zhi)4%以(yi)(yi)內(nei),均為(wei)金(jin)融危(wei)機以(yi)(yi)來的(de)最低(di)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)。
但值得關注的(de)(de)是(shi),目前全球經(jing)濟金融呈現深度調整、加速(su)分化(hua)格局,金融監管要求進一步趨嚴,客戶和業(ye)務全球化(hua)使銀行(xing)業(ye)對國(guo)際市(shi)場波動更(geng)加敏感(gan),未來(lai)國(guo)際化(hua)經(jing)營(ying)環(huan)境的(de)(de)不確定性會更(geng)加明顯,變化(hua)會更(geng)加頻繁,不同市(shi)場間連(lian)鎖反應會更(geng)加劇烈,2018年國(guo)際銀行(xing)業(ye)發展或將面臨經(jing)營(ying)環(huan)境的(de)(de)新變化(hua)帶來(lai)的(de)(de)六(liu)大挑戰。
復雜多變的國際形(xing)勢加(jia)大經營戰略(lve)風險
面(mian)(mian)對復(fu)雜分化(hua)、持續(xu)變(bian)(bian)(bian)化(hua)、連鎖(suo)反應的全(quan)球(qiu)經(jing)濟金(jin)融環(huan)境,國(guo)(guo)際銀(yin)行(xing)集(ji)團統籌不(bu)同機(ji)構發展(zhan)策略(lve)難度加大(da)(da),很難一策對全(quan)球(qiu),需(xu)要有(you)更(geng)深入、更(geng)有(you)針對性(xing)的市場研究(jiu)和更(geng)強(qiang)管理能力,這也在一定程度上加大(da)(da)了(le)國(guo)(guo)際銀(yin)行(xing)業全(quan)球(qiu)化(hua)經(jing)營的戰(zhan)略(lve)風險:一方(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian)(mian),全(quan)球(qiu)宏觀經(jing)濟環(huan)境變(bian)(bian)(bian)化(hua)、金(jin)融市場波動性(xing)加大(da)(da)、各(ge)種風險因素疊加,對國(guo)(guo)際銀(yin)行(xing)業發展(zhan)帶來(lai)更(geng)加錯綜復(fu)雜的挑戰(zhan)。能否及時(shi)發現未(wei)來(lai)趨勢,采取有(you)效措施(shi)抓住發展(zhan)機(ji)遇確立戰(zhan)略(lve)目標(biao),是國(guo)(guo)際銀(yin)行(xing)業未(wei)來(lai)面(mian)(mian)臨(lin)的一大(da)(da)考驗(yan);另(ling)一方(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian)(mian),隨(sui)著外部宏觀、產(chan)業、技術變(bian)(bian)(bian)革、競(jing)爭對手等環(huan)境變(bian)(bian)(bian)化(hua)的日益加快,或(huo)將致使現有(you)戰(zhan)略(lve)失去實施(shi)的條件和意義,能否迅速調整全(quan)球(qiu)化(hua)經(jing)營戰(zhan)略(lve),也是考驗(yan)國(guo)(guo)際銀(yin)行(xing)業經(jing)營的重大(da)(da)問(wen)題之一,應在全(quan)球(qiu)化(hua)整體戰(zhan)略(lve)、目標(biao)市場選(xuan)擇、客戶需(xu)求(qiu)、產(chan)品(pin)與服務政策等方(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian)(mian)繼續(xu)加強(qiang)研究(jiu)。
國際(ji)銀(yin)行業經驗表明,高(gao)效(xiao)的組織管理模(mo)式對于銀(yin)行經營的成敗具有重要影響。
此外,目(mu)前存(cun)在(zai)著(zhu)境外機(ji)構執行總(zong)行國際化戰(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)不(bu)力,導致(zhi)集團戰(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)無法(fa)(fa)(fa)有效落實(shi)的(de)情(qing)況(kuang)。境外機(ji)構對總(zong)行的(de)國際化發展(zhan)戰(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)不(bu)能完(wan)(wan)全貫(guan)徹(che)落實(shi),或者對于實(shi)施(shi)總(zong)行國際發展(zhan)戰(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)過(guo)于機(ji)械、教(jiao)條,以至于戰(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)實(shi)施(shi)的(de)條件不(bu)能達成(cheng),無法(fa)(fa)(fa)推進戰(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)實(shi)施(shi),從而(er)也無法(fa)(fa)(fa)完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)總(zong)行的(de)戰(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)目(mu)標。主要包括(kuo)以下情(qing)況(kuang):一(yi)是(shi)(shi)境外機(ji)構經營理念和(he)思路與(yu)發展(zhan)戰(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)不(bu)一(yi)致(zhi)。二(er)是(shi)(shi)因(yin)(yin)資源配置不(bu)到位導致(zhi)部分重點戰(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)無法(fa)(fa)(fa)推動實(shi)施(shi)。三是(shi)(shi)部分機(ji)構或專業因(yin)(yin)缺乏相應(ying)約束,經營行為與(yu)全行戰(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)出現嚴重偏差。
非常規(gui)貨幣政策退(tui)出加劇信(xin)用及匯率風(feng)險
2017年前三季度,發達(da)和(he)新(xin)(xin)興(xing)(xing)(xing)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場經濟體(ti)貨幣政(zheng)策分化(hua)加(jia)(jia)劇,美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)聯儲(chu)已經多次加(jia)(jia)息(xi)并(bing)開始縮(suo)表(biao),歐(ou)洲央行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)10月宣布明年縮(suo)表(biao),而主要(yao)新(xin)(xin)興(xing)(xing)(xing)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場經濟體(ti)則繼續(xu)降息(xi)。美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)國引領全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)非(fei)常(chang)規貨幣政(zheng)策加(jia)(jia)速退(tui)出(chu)對全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)持(chi)續(xu)復蘇和(he)金(jin)融未定構(gou)成不容忽視的(de)(de)下行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian),尤(you)其(qi)(qi)要(yao)特別關注非(fei)常(chang)規貨幣政(zheng)策退(tui)出(chu)的(de)(de)溢出(chu)效(xiao)應,可(ke)能(neng)推動(dong)全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)利(li)率(lv)的(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)、資(zi)(zi)金(jin)流(liu)向的(de)(de)逆(ni)轉,或(huo)對全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)流(liu)動(dong)性產(chan)生沖擊。這將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)對國際(ji)銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)經營產(chan)生深(shen)遠影響。其(qi)(qi)一(yi)(yi),國際(ji)銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)業(ye)(ye)務(wu)模式(shi)、盈(ying)利(li)來(lai)(lai)源、結(jie)構(gou)和(he)地區分布會發生較大(da)變化(hua),在(zai)穩固(gu)新(xin)(xin)興(xing)(xing)(xing)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場份額、爭取發達(da)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場增長兩個方面上(shang)(shang)的(de)(de)壓力都會增加(jia)(jia),信(xin)用(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)和(he)國別風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)可(ke)能(neng)進(jin)一(yi)(yi)步上(shang)(shang)升(sheng),流(liu)動(dong)性和(he)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)會加(jia)(jia)速放大(da)。其(qi)(qi)二,發達(da)經濟體(ti)貨幣政(zheng)策逆(ni)轉或(huo)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)加(jia)(jia)劇全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)外(wai)匯市(shi)(shi)(shi)場、股市(shi)(shi)(shi)及(ji)債(zhai)市(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)大(da)幅波動(dong),加(jia)(jia)劇其(qi)(qi)對國際(ji)銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)經營帶(dai)來(lai)(lai)的(de)(de)匯率(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)、交(jiao)易風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)和(he)信(xin)用(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian);其(qi)(qi)三,針對美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)元(yuan)及(ji)其(qi)(qi)實際(ji)利(li)率(lv)上(shang)(shang)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)導致的(de)(de)全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)重新(xin)(xin)估值(zhi)(zhi)趨向,可(ke)能(neng)會加(jia)(jia)劇國際(ji)銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)調(diao)整全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)負債(zhai)配置(zhi)的(de)(de)難度;其(qi)(qi)四,美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)聯儲(chu)縮(suo)表(biao)可(ke)能(neng)推助美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)元(yuan)升(sheng)值(zhi)(zhi),新(xin)(xin)興(xing)(xing)(xing)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)面臨更大(da)的(de)(de)本幣貶值(zhi)(zhi)和(he)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)外(wai)流(liu)挑戰,部分較為脆弱(ruo)的(de)(de)新(xin)(xin)興(xing)(xing)(xing)經濟體(ti)可(ke)能(neng)或(huo)爆發貨幣危機、主權債(zhai)務(wu)危機,國際(ji)銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)新(xin)(xin)興(xing)(xing)(xing)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場海外(wai)機構(gou)或(huo)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)面臨較大(da)考驗。
國際金融監管(guan)整體(ti)趨(qu)嚴加劇合規及(ji)流動性風險
金(jin)融危機(ji)(ji)(ji)以來全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)金(jin)融監(jian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)趨(qu)嚴態勢(shi)仍在持(chi)續,《巴塞爾協議Ⅲ》正在全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)范圍全(quan)(quan)面(mian)實施,基于宏觀(guan)審慎(shen)監(jian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)框架下的(de)新(xin)監(jian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)要求不(bu)斷(duan)出臺,對(dui)(dui)(dui)境外(wai)機(ji)(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)公司治理(li)(li)(li)、增長方(fang)式轉型(xing)升(sheng)級、資(zi)本(ben)(ben)運營(ying)、風險(xian)和(he)合(he)(he)規(gui)(gui)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li),乃至總行(xing)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)模式、資(zi)源配置方(fang)向和(he)本(ben)(ben)國(guo)機(ji)(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)跨(kua)境業(ye)務合(he)(he)規(gui)(gui)發展等(deng)方(fang)面(mian)都將提(ti)出更(geng)(geng)高和(he)更(geng)(geng)緊迫的(de)要求。全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)重(zhong)要性銀行(xing)(GSIFI)面(mian)臨額(e)外(wai)的(de)資(zi)本(ben)(ben)充(chong)足(zu)率要求,境外(wai)機(ji)(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)業(ye)務落地(di)發展,特(te)別是(shi)全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)融資(zi)、資(zi)產(chan)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)、投(tou)資(zi)銀行(xing)等(deng)高附加(jia)(jia)值產(chan)品線持(chi)續對(dui)(dui)(dui)外(wai)深度延伸,監(jian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)趨(qu)嚴對(dui)(dui)(dui)業(ye)務發展的(de)約束(shu)表現會更(geng)(geng)加(jia)(jia)直接。合(he)(he)規(gui)(gui)風險(xian)方(fang)面(mian),近(jin)幾(ji)年,全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)監(jian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)力(li)度不(bu)斷(duan)加(jia)(jia)強(qiang),境外(wai)屬地(di)監(jian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)機(ji)(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)對(dui)(dui)(dui)大(da)型(xing)主流銀行(xing)的(de)監(jian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)標準和(he)期望(wang)連年上升(sheng)。尤其是(shi)美(mei)國(guo)司法和(he)監(jian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)機(ji)(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)對(dui)(dui)(dui)國(guo)際銀行(xing)的(de)反(fan)洗(xi)錢處罰力(li)度明顯加(jia)(jia)強(qiang),巨額(e)處罰對(dui)(dui)(dui)銀行(xing)聲譽和(he)經營(ying)業(ye)績(ji)產(chan)生了(le)(le)較為嚴重(zhong)的(de)負面(mian)影響,歐盟金(jin)融監(jian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)機(ji)(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)對(dui)(dui)(dui)于反(fan)洗(xi)錢、市場操縱等(deng)方(fang)面(mian)也加(jia)(jia)大(da)了(le)(le)監(jian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)和(he)處罰力(li)度。在此背(bei)景下,國(guo)際銀行(xing)業(ye)的(de)信(xin)(xin)貸、反(fan)洗(xi)錢、資(zi)負管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)、公司治理(li)(li)(li)、信(xin)(xin)息系(xi)(xi)統(tong)等(deng)相關業(ye)務的(de)合(he)(he)規(gui)(gui)風險(xian)逐漸凸(tu)顯,經營(ying)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)也將大(da)大(da)增加(jia)(jia)。
流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)性(xing)風險方(fang)面,隨著(zhu)《巴塞爾(er)協議(yi)Ⅲ》的(de)(de)推(tui)出和(he)落地,全球監管機構普(pu)遍提(ti)高了(le)對(dui)(dui)銀行(xing)流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)性(xing)覆(fu)蓋率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)求。未來一(yi)(yi)個時(shi)期,國(guo)際金融市場波(bo)動(dong)(dong)對(dui)(dui)國(guo)際銀行(xing)業流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)性(xing)的(de)(de)影(ying)響會逐(zhu)漸增(zeng)(zeng)大(da)(da),主要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)表現在以(yi)下兩(liang)個方(fang)面:一(yi)(yi)是(shi)國(guo)別差異對(dui)(dui)流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)性(xing)管理(li)提(ti)出了(le)更多要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)求。各國(guo)不(bu)同的(de)(de)經濟形(xing)勢(shi)使得不(bu)同地區資(zi)(zi)產(chan)流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)性(xing)更加復雜,難以(yi)適用統一(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)性(xing)管理(li)模式。二是(shi)匯率(lv)(lv)對(dui)(dui)流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)性(xing)風險的(de)(de)影(ying)響將逐(zhu)漸增(zeng)(zeng)大(da)(da)。在管理(li)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)結(jie)構過程中(zhong),除了(le)需要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)關(guan)注資(zi)(zi)產(chan)的(de)(de)期限結(jie)構和(he)信用等級之外,匯率(lv)(lv)風險也會成為影(ying)響流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)性(xing)管理(li)的(de)(de)重要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)因素。例如,在美聯(lian)儲(chu)貨幣(bi)(bi)政策轉(zhuan)向、新興經濟體(ti)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)前景(jing)仍面臨不(bu)確定(ding)性(xing)的(de)(de)大(da)(da)背景(jing)下,新興市場貨幣(bi)(bi)匯率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)大(da)(da)幅波(bo)動(dong)(dong),極(ji)有可能和(he)跨(kua)境資(zi)(zi)本大(da)(da)量流(liu)(liu)出形(xing)成負反饋循環,從而加大(da)(da)當地境外機構的(de)(de)流(liu)(liu)動(dong)(dong)性(xing)風險。
金融業發展趨勢(shi)變革(ge)加劇外部及(ji)同業競爭風(feng)險
未(wei)來,全球金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)有(you)三方面(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展趨勢值(zhi)得關注:一是(shi)新(xin)進入(ru)者(zhe)咄咄逼人,蠶食銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)利(li)潤。新(xin)興的(de)(de)(de)(de)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)科(ke)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)公司正在(zai)各個細分領域攻擊(ji)傳統銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)核心業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)。這(zhe)些新(xin)進入(ru)者(zhe)建立(li)起(qi)了以(yi)(yi)客(ke)(ke)(ke)戶(hu)體(ti)驗為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)導(dao)(dao)向、以(yi)(yi)數(shu)據(ju)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)驅動、以(yi)(yi)互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)低成本擴(kuo)張為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)手段的(de)(de)(de)(de)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)模(mo)式(shi)(shi),打(da)破了銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)壟斷(duan)局面(mian)。截至2016年末(mo),中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)市場滲透率(lv)已(yi)達36%,用(yong)戶(hu)近5億人。如何應(ying)(ying)(ying)對新(xin)競爭(zheng)(zheng)者(zhe),尋找新(xin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)模(mo)式(shi)(shi)將成為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)際銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)必然選(xuan)擇。二是(shi)新(xin)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)快速發(fa)展,推動銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)變革。前(qian)沿(yan)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)日新(xin)月(yue)異(yi),在(zai)前(qian)中(zhong)后臺的(de)(de)(de)(de)應(ying)(ying)(ying)用(yong)更(geng)加廣(guang)泛(fan),這(zhe)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)際銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)帶(dai)來前(qian)所未(wei)有(you)的(de)(de)(de)(de)革新(xin)機遇:大(da)(da)數(shu)據(ju)有(you)助于精準預測消費者(zhe)的(de)(de)(de)(de)行(xing)(xing)(xing)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)及其演(yan)變方式(shi)(shi),從而(er)實現(xian)產品的(de)(de)(de)(de)定(ding)制化(hua)(hua)和(he)(he)差異(yi)定(ding)價;區塊鏈技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)通過(guo)數(shu)據(ju)的(de)(de)(de)(de)分布式(shi)(shi)存儲和(he)(he)點對點傳輸(shu),打(da)破了中(zhong)心化(hua)(hua)和(he)(he)中(zhong)介化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)數(shu)據(ju)傳輸(shu)模(mo)式(shi)(shi);金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)云可為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)客(ke)(ke)(ke)戶(hu)提(ti)供遠程的(de)(de)(de)(de)、基于需求(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)服務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu),架構靈活能有(you)效(xiao)節約總開支。三是(shi)新(xin)商業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)模(mo)式(shi)(shi)不(bu)斷(duan)涌(yong)現(xian),顛(dian)覆傳統業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)。在(zai)經歷了電子銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)、網(wang)(wang)絡(luo)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)、移動銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)后,銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)現(xian)已(yi)全面(mian)步入(ru)4.0 數(shu)字化(hua)(hua)時代。如今(jin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)客(ke)(ke)(ke)戶(hu)要求(qiu)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)以(yi)(yi)客(ke)(ke)(ke)戶(hu)體(ti)驗為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)中(zhong)心,提(ti)供全渠(qu)道、無(wu)縫式(shi)(shi)、定(ding)制化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)產品和(he)(he)服務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu),這(zhe)就意味著銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)必須顛(dian)覆傳統業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)模(mo)式(shi)(shi),即通過(guo)收(shou)購、投(tou)資、戰略合作等多(duo)種形(xing)式(shi)(shi)布局,借力金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)科(ke)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)創新(xin),打(da)造以(yi)(yi)自身業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)核心、融(rong)(rong)(rong)合科(ke)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)創新(xin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)一體(ti)化(hua)(hua)移動金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)生態圈。在(zai)此(ci)背景下,國(guo)(guo)(guo)際銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)經營或(huo)將面(mian)臨更(geng)大(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)競爭(zheng)(zheng)難(nan)度:一方面(mian),歐美金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)科(ke)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)公司和(he)(he)互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)巨頭以(yi)(yi)其以(yi)(yi)客(ke)(ke)(ke)戶(hu)體(ti)驗為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)導(dao)(dao)向、以(yi)(yi)數(shu)據(ju)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)驅動、以(yi)(yi)互(hu)(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)低成本擴(kuo)張為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)手段的(de)(de)(de)(de)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)模(mo)式(shi)(shi)來打(da)破銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)壟斷(duan)局面(mian),國(guo)(guo)(guo)際銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)傳統業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)或(huo)將受到其沖擊(ji);另(ling)一方面(mian),面(mian)對金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)科(ke)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)帶(dai)來的(de)(de)(de)(de)猛烈沖擊(ji),國(guo)(guo)(guo)際銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)均在(zai)主動求(qiu)變,主要采取直接(jie)投(tou)資、協(xie)同(tong)合作及技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)革新(xin)等策(ce)略積極(ji)應(ying)(ying)(ying)對,并(bing)通過(guo)優(you)化(hua)(hua)網(wang)(wang)絡(luo)布局適應(ying)(ying)(ying)未(wei)來金(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)科(ke)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展趨勢,國(guo)(guo)(guo)際銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)未(wei)來創新(xin)發(fa)展也將面(mian)臨更(geng)大(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)同(tong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)競爭(zheng)(zheng)。
環(huan)境(jing)社會風險成(cheng)為(wei)潛(qian)在(zai)新隱患
隨著綠色(se)發(fa)(fa)展和(he)綠色(se)金(jin)融在全球(qiu)的快速發(fa)(fa)展,環境(jing)社(she)會風險已經成為(wei)國(guo)際銀(yin)行業未來(lai)發(fa)(fa)展的潛在風險,可能給國(guo)際化投(tou)(tou)融資(zi)(zi)業務(wu)帶來(lai)較(jiao)大影響。隨著以赤道原則為(wei)代表的可持(chi)續投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)理念(nian)逐(zhu)漸推行,國(guo)際投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)人和(he)海(hai)外(wai)客戶越來(lai)越注重金(jin)融機構(gou)本身的環境(jing)和(he)可持(chi)續發(fa)(fa)展戰略(lve)。商業銀(yin)行經營本身是(shi)否(fou)(fou)符合綠色(se)標(biao)準(zhun),資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)配置和(he)項(xiang)目(mu)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)是(shi)否(fou)(fou)達到(dao)可持(chi)續投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)原則,正越來(lai)越影響到(dao)海(hai)外(wai)分支機構(gou)的聲(sheng)譽(yu)評價,主要體現在三方面:一(yi)是(shi)企業或項(xiang)目(mu)由于不(bu)滿足當地環保標(biao)準(zhun)而(er)(er)(er)產(chan)(chan)(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)項(xiang)目(mu)延(yan)期、擱(ge)淺(qian),甚至終止,導(dao)致(zhi)無法(fa)回籠資(zi)(zi)金(jin)、償還貸(dai)款(kuan),進而(er)(er)(er)加大貸(dai)款(kuan)銀(yin)行的信用(yong)風險;二是(shi)企業或項(xiang)目(mu)在實施過(guo)程中由于對(dui)當地生(sheng)(sheng)態環境(jing)、人民生(sheng)(sheng)活、文化遺產(chan)(chan)(chan)等產(chan)(chan)(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)破壞而(er)(er)(er)導(dao)致(zhi)訴訟,致(zhi)使貸(dai)款(kuan)銀(yin)行也需承擔連帶責(ze)任(ren)。三是(shi)由于為(wei)產(chan)(chan)(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)環境(jing)事(shi)故的企業或項(xiang)目(mu)提供(gong)貸(dai)款(kuan)而(er)(er)(er)遭(zao)受聲(sheng)譽(yu)損失。
地緣政治風(feng)險推高經營安全風(feng)險
2017年地(di)緣政治風(feng)(feng)險(xian)繼(ji)續升(sheng)級:中東地(di)區動蕩加劇,沙特與(yu)伊朗和(he)卡(ka)塔爾的(de)(de)斷交(jiao)風(feng)(feng)波(bo)持(chi)續發(fa)(fa)酵;朝鮮(xian)繼(ji)續核試(shi)驗,引發(fa)(fa)韓國加速部署薩德系統(tong),朝鮮(xian)半島安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)局(ju)勢急劇惡化(hua);IS在歐美(mei)地(di)區連續制造恐怖襲(xi)擊(ji)事件,引發(fa)(fa)的(de)(de)難民(min)問題(ti)不僅加大(da)歐洲(zhou)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)險(xian),而且(qie)逐步向美(mei)日及(ji)新興市(shi)場擴散,預計未來幾年仍是地(di)緣政治風(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)高發(fa)(fa)期,使得國際銀行業發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)面(mian)臨的(de)(de)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)也(ye)漸(jian)趨(qu)復(fu)雜。未來,發(fa)(fa)達經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)體(ti)(ti)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)形勢總體(ti)(ti)應好于(yu)新興經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)體(ti)(ti)。難民(min)危(wei)機久拖(tuo)不決、恐怖襲(xi)擊(ji)時有發(fa)(fa)生對歐洲(zhou)的(de)(de)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)形勢造成重(zhong)要(yao)影(ying)響,而美(mei)國、日本等發(fa)(fa)達經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)體(ti)(ti)的(de)(de)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)形勢前(qian)景要(yao)好于(yu)歐洲(zhou)。新興經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)體(ti)(ti)中,東南亞(ya)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)形勢最好,巴西(xi)、阿根廷的(de)(de)內亂(luan)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)有所(suo)提升(sheng),中東的(de)(de)卡(ka)塔爾斷交(jiao)風(feng)(feng)波(bo)應不會(hui)產(chan)生更大(da)波(bo)瀾,但伊拉(la)克、敘(xu)利亞(ya)、也(ye)門的(de)(de)形勢不容樂觀。
(作(zuo)者單(dan)位:中國工商銀(yin)行城市金融研究所(suo))
中(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網聲明(ming)(ming):凡本網注明(ming)(ming)“來(lai)(lai)源(yuan):中(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網”的(de)(de)所有作(zuo)(zuo)品,版權(quan)均屬(shu)于中(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)、中(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網。中(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網與作(zuo)(zuo)品作(zuo)(zuo)者聯合聲明(ming)(ming),任何(he)組(zu)織(zhi)未(wei)經中(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)、中(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網以及作(zuo)(zuo)者書(shu)面(mian)授(shou)權(quan)不(bu)得轉載(zai)、摘(zhai)編或(huo)利用其(qi)它方(fang)式使用上述作(zuo)(zuo)品。凡本網注明(ming)(ming)來(lai)(lai)源(yuan)非中(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)網的(de)(de)作(zuo)(zuo)品,均轉載(zai)自其(qi)它媒(mei)體(ti),轉載(zai)目(mu)的(de)(de)在于更好服(fu)務讀者、傳遞信息之需,并不(bu)代表本網贊同其(qi)觀點,本網亦(yi)不(bu)對其(qi)真實性(xing)負責,持異議者應與原出(chu)處(chu)單位主(zhu)張(zhang)權(quan)利。
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