中證網訊(記(ji)者 馬爽)本(ben)周(zhou)以來,農產品期(qi)(qi)貨熱(re)點不斷涌現(xian),紅(hong)(hong)棗、蘋(pin)果(guo)期(qi)(qi)貨交替霸屏。其中,蘋(pin)果(guo)期(qi)(qi)貨主力(li)1910合約5月(yue)(yue)16日最(zui)(zui)高(gao)上(shang)探至2018年10月(yue)(yue)22日以來新高(gao);紅(hong)(hong)棗期(qi)(qi)貨主力(li)1912合約更是迭創上(shang)市以來新高(gao),5月(yue)(yue)6日最(zui)(zui)高(gao)是9890元/噸。兩者本(ben)周(zhou)以來累計分(fen)別上(shang)漲8.32%、12.05%。
中信期貨分(fen)析師表示,近(jin)期蘋果(guo)(guo)(guo)期貨價(jia)(jia)(jia)格不斷走高(gao),一方(fang)面是陜西部分(fen)產區(qu)受(shou)去年(nian)落葉病(bing)影響,今年(nian)坐果(guo)(guo)(guo)不佳;山東(dong)產區(qu)同樣出(chu)現坐果(guo)(guo)(guo)不佳的(de)現象,市場擔憂再起。另(ling)一方(fang)面,現貨市場價(jia)(jia)(jia)格持續上(shang)漲,業內認為在舊季蘋果(guo)(guo)(guo)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格維(wei)持高(gao)位的(de)情況下,新季蘋果(guo)(guo)(guo)開(kai)秤價(jia)(jia)(jia)將難以大幅下跌(die)。整體來看,當前蘋果(guo)(guo)(guo)市場在基本面等(deng)方(fang)面存在階段性支撐,預計在套袋(dai)結束前,期價(jia)(jia)(jia)或維(wei)持高(gao)位運行(xing)。
安糧期(qi)(qi)(qi)貨分析師(shi)李雨馨指出,紅(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)棗(zao)(zao)期(qi)(qi)(qi)貨連續(xu)上漲主要是(shi)受四方面因素(su)推動(dong):其一(yi)(yi),資(zi)金(jin)層面。像紅(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)棗(zao)(zao)、蘋果等這(zhe)種(zhong)扶貧(pin)小品種(zhong)更容易得到資(zi)金(jin)的(de)關(guan)注。其二,成本(ben)方面,紅(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)棗(zao)(zao)掛牌上市價(jia)格8600元/噸(dun)接(jie)近(jin)紅(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)棗(zao)(zao)當時(shi)市場(chang)價(jia),且交易所交割(ge)品級的(de)紅(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)棗(zao)(zao)市面上較少(shao),倉單成本(ben)普遍高于現貨成本(ben);因此(ci)掛盤(pan)上市價(jia)格處(chu)在相對低(di)位(wei),對買(mai)盤(pan)有(you)一(yi)(yi)定的(de)吸引力。其三,基本(ben)面天氣(qi)因素(su)炒(chao)作。紅(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)棗(zao)(zao)產地(di)(di)南(nan)疆阿克蘇地(di)(di)區前期(qi)(qi)(qi)遭遇雨雪天氣(qi),近(jin)期(qi)(qi)(qi)若(ruo)羌地(di)(di)區又有(you)沙塵天氣(qi),或(huo)對紅(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)棗(zao)(zao)花期(qi)(qi)(qi)有(you)一(yi)(yi)定影響。其四,需求旺(wang)季炒(chao)作。臨近(jin)端(duan)午,市場(chang)對紅(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)棗(zao)(zao)有(you)備貨預期(qi)(qi)(qi),價(jia)格也隨之上漲。
總體來看,李雨馨表(biao)示(shi),在(zai)政策、成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)、情緒(xu)等因素影響下,當前紅棗(zao)期貨(huo)價格上漲勢頭仍(reng)難結束。從接(jie)貨(huo)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)角度來看,希望(wang)投(tou)資者保持理性投(tou)資,追高需(xu)多(duo)一份謹慎(shen)。