近期,印度(du)提高棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)進口關稅(shui)形(xing)成利空沖擊,引(yin)發市場(chang)短期拋售,棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)一度(du)重挫(cuo)。但(dan)是(shi)由(you)于棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)庫存進入下降周(zhou)期,出口預期也會隨著天氣(qi)轉暖好轉,投(tou)資者不(bu)宜過度(du)悲(bei)觀,棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)或轉為階段性(xing)振蕩(dang)走(zou)勢(shi)。
多空因素交織
近期,市場因素多(duo)空交織,沖擊(ji)主要(yao)來自于(yu)印(yin)(yin)度(du)對(dui)棕櫚(lv)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)需求下滑的(de)擔(dan)憂。印(yin)(yin)度(du)將毛棕櫚(lv)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)進(jin)(jin)口關(guan)稅(shui)從(cong)30%上調至44%,將精(jing)煉棕櫚(lv)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)進(jin)(jin)口關(guan)稅(shui)從(cong)40%上調至54%,而印(yin)(yin)度(du)毛豆(dou)(dou)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)及精(jing)煉豆(dou)(dou)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)進(jin)(jin)口關(guan)稅(shui)分別維持在(zai)30%和(he)35%不變。印(yin)(yin)度(du)上一年(nian)度(du)棕櫚(lv)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)進(jin)(jin)口量為930萬噸,今年(nian)受關(guan)稅(shui)不平(ping)衡變化影響,可能會(hui)向豆(dou)(dou)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)及葵花(hua)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)讓渡部分市場。毛葵花(hua)籽油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)及精(jing)煉葵花(hua)籽油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)進(jin)(jin)口關(guan)稅(shui)分別為25%和(he)35%,在(zai)棕櫚(lv)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)進(jin)(jin)口下降的(de)情況下,升幅最大的(de)或為葵花(hua)籽油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)。而且近期市場對(dui)于(yu)印(yin)(yin)度(du)取消近月至多(duo)10萬噸船貨的(de)消息,對(dui)市場形成進(jin)(jin)一步的(de)沖擊(ji)。
當前,豆油棕櫚油國際FOB價差仍處于90美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)/噸附(fu)近(jin),并不(bu)利于棕櫚油貿易量擴大,因此會繼續受到美(mei)(mei)豆油走(zou)(zou)勢的(de)制約(yue)。美(mei)(mei)盤形勢則在美(mei)(mei)豆庫存調升(sheng)整體(ti)回調后,繼續令美(mei)(mei)豆油延(yan)續低(di)迷走(zou)(zou)勢,阿根廷產(chan)量調降預期也(ye)呈現階段性的(de)獲利了結(jie),當然下(xia)方空間(jian)在減產(chan)支持下(xia)相對有限(xian),這意味著(zhu)后期美(mei)(mei)盤仍有回升(sheng)空間(jian),進而利好(hao)整體(ti)油脂走(zou)(zou)勢。
數據(ju)顯示,馬來(lai)西亞2月(yue)棕(zong)櫚(lv)油(you)庫存(cun)(cun)小幅下降至(zhi)247.79萬噸,自2017年12月(yue)連(lian)降兩個月(yue),但仍(reng)(reng)為近十年歷(li)史同(tong)期(qi)高(gao)位,且超過市場預期(qi)。2月(yue)為季節性(xing)減產周期(qi),產量雖(sui)降至(zhi)134萬噸,但仍(reng)(reng)為近十年歷(li)史同(tong)期(qi)高(gao)位。2月(yue)出口僅(jin)為131萬噸,印度提高(gao)關稅抑制馬來(lai)西亞棕(zong)櫚(lv)油(you)出口,進口意外增(zeng)多成為庫存(cun)(cun)增(zeng)加(jia)主因。
中(zhong)期(qi)來(lai)看(kan),庫存(cun)仍存(cun)下降周期(qi),利多年(nian)中(zhong)棕(zong)櫚油價格表現(xian)。3月(yue)以(yi)后,棕(zong)櫚油產量會逐漸(jian)回(hui)升,但是近期(qi)南(nan)蘇門答臘和南(nan)卡里曼(man)丹降雨,對短期(qi)棕(zong)櫚油收成(cheng)有(you)所(suo)影(ying)響,且會導致棕(zong)櫚果中(zhong)的(de)水分含量上升,出(chu)油率降低,這將影(ying)響單產增長周期(qi)的(de)產量初期(qi)回(hui)升節(jie)奏,5月(yue)之前的(de)供應(ying)恢復節(jie)奏可(ke)(ke)能都會比較緩慢。從需求(qiu)端來(lai)講,后續齋月(yue)備貨需求(qiu)對棕(zong)櫚油也(ye)有(you)可(ke)(ke)能形成(cheng)提振。
等待節奏切換
春節后國(guo)內棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)(you)市(shi)場需(xu)求偏弱,庫存回升(sheng)至68萬噸(dun)附近,3月預期(qi)24度棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)(you)到港量在25萬—30萬噸(dun),但國(guo)內豆(dou)油(you)(you)(you)棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)(you)現(xian)貨價差(cha)(cha)依然較窄,不利于(yu)棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)(you)需(xu)求的擴展,因此預期(qi)庫存仍存在緩(huan)升(sheng)的可能性。由(you)于(yu)棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)(you)內外(wai)盤缺乏進(jin)口(kou)空(kong)間(jian)(jian),倒掛延續(xu),前期(qi)船貨拓展空(kong)間(jian)(jian)受(shou)限,令(ling)國(guo)內棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)(you)走勢強于(yu)國(guo)外(wai),在國(guo)際市(shi)場連(lian)續(xu)下挫(cuo)之后,關注內外(wai)盤是(shi)否形成(cheng)進(jin)口(kou)利潤(run)空(kong)間(jian)(jian)。國(guo)內市(shi)場棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)(you)會(hui)繼續(xu)受(shou)制于(yu)豆(dou)油(you)(you)(you)較為充(chong)足的供(gong)應,和豆(dou)油(you)(you)(you)棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)(you)現(xian)貨較窄價差(cha)(cha)的約束。
展(zhan)望后市,近期棕櫚(lv)油振蕩整理,不宜過度追空(kong)。油粕(po)比節奏變換(huan),未來美豆種植面積預(yu)期等新題材(cai)因素換(huan)擋提振油脂類回升,棕櫚(lv)油仍有望出現階段性反彈。
中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)聲明(ming)(ming):凡(fan)本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)注(zhu)明(ming)(ming)“來(lai)源(yuan):中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)”的(de)(de)所有作(zuo)品(pin)(pin),版權均(jun)屬于中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)與作(zuo)品(pin)(pin)作(zuo)者(zhe)聯合聲明(ming)(ming),任何組(zu)織(zhi)未經中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)以及作(zuo)者(zhe)書面(mian)授權不(bu)(bu)得轉載、摘編或利用其(qi)它(ta)方式使用上(shang)述作(zuo)品(pin)(pin)。凡(fan)本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)注(zhu)明(ming)(ming)來(lai)源(yuan)非中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)證(zheng)券報(bao)(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)的(de)(de)作(zuo)品(pin)(pin),均(jun)轉載自其(qi)它(ta)媒體(ti),轉載目的(de)(de)在于更好服務讀者(zhe)、傳遞信息之需,并不(bu)(bu)代表本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)贊同其(qi)觀(guan)點,本(ben)(ben)網(wang)(wang)(wang)亦不(bu)(bu)對其(qi)真實性負責,持異議(yi)者(zhe)應(ying)與原出處單(dan)位主張權利。
特別鏈接:政府部門交易機構證券期貨四所兩司新聞發布平臺友情鏈接版權聲明
關于報社關于本站廣告發布免責條款
中國證券報社版權所有,未經書面授權不得復制或建立鏡像 經營許可證編號:京B2-20180749 京公網安備0-1
Copyright 2001-2018 China Securities Journal. All Rights Reserved
中(zhong)國證券報社(she)版(ban)權所有,未經書(shu)面授權不得復制或建立鏡像(xiang)
經營許(xu)可證編號(hao):京B2-20180749 京公網安備(bei)0-1
Copyright 2001-2018 China Securities Journal. All Rights Reserved