投資要點：

　　從中長期(qi)角度看，建筑依(yi)然有三類投資(zi)機會值得關(guan)注：

　　1）階段(duan)性(xing)(xing)政(zheng)(zheng)策觸發(fa)的小周(zhou)(zhou)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)情(qing)。從大(da)周(zhou)(zhou)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)看，城鎮化進度以(yi)及經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)動能(neng)轉換決定(ding)了(le)投資(zi)增(zeng)(zeng)速趨勢向下(xia)，未來(lai)(lai)很可能(neng)不(bu)(bu)增(zeng)(zeng)長，甚至負(fu)增(zeng)(zeng)長。但其(qi)過程中，投資(zi)，尤(you)其(qi)是(shi)基建投資(zi)，由于其(qi)把控(kong)性(xing)(xing)較(jiao)強，對(dui)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)長的穩定(ding)作用明顯，因此(ci)在經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)下(xia)行(xing)(xing)(xing)壓力較(jiao)大(da)時，就有可能(neng)出(chu)現(xian)階段(duan)性(xing)(xing)的政(zheng)(zheng)策放(fang)松，比(bi)如貨幣寬松、財政(zheng)(zheng)擴張(zhang)等，這將(jiang)釋放(fang)短期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)建筑行(xing)(xing)(xing)業的需(xu)求彈性(xing)(xing)，迎來(lai)(lai)“小周(zhou)(zhou)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)”行(xing)(xing)(xing)情(qing)，然而(er)不(bu)(bu)得不(bu)(bu)承認的是(shi)，政(zheng)(zheng)策或是(shi)觸發(fa)這種階段(duan)性(xing)(xing)行(xing)(xing)(xing)情(qing)的最(zui)可能(neng)因素。

　　2）投資結構變(bian)(bian)(bian)化(hua)蘊含的細分領(ling)域(yu)機會(hui)。建筑是產業落地的載(zai)體，產業結構的變(bian)(bian)(bian)化(hua)意(yi)(yi)味(wei)著投資結構的變(bian)(bian)(bian)化(hua)，這種變(bian)(bian)(bian)化(hua)趨勢，也意(yi)(yi)味(wei)著符合未(wei)來產業結構方向的建筑需(xu)求，依然是有較大投資機會(hui)。但這類投資機會(hui)，更多是細分領(ling)域(yu)的龍頭(tou)企業。

　　3）集中(zhong)(zhong)度(du)提升機會(hui)。與其他行(xing)業(ye)(ye)一樣，建(jian)筑行(xing)業(ye)(ye)也存(cun)在(zai)明顯(xian)的集中(zhong)(zhong)度(du)提升的趨勢，其主(zhu)要原因是行(xing)業(ye)(ye)需求環境有(you)所惡(e)化(hua)的大(da)背景下，市(shi)場(chang)競爭加劇，從(cong)業(ye)(ye)主(zhu)角度(du)看(kan)對企業(ye)(ye)的資(zi)金、品牌、施工能力等要求更高，從(cong)企業(ye)(ye)現階(jie)段來看(kan)，受去(qu)杠桿政策影響(xiang)，各公司(si)的資(zi)金實力差異在(zai)拉大(da)，疊加當前的信用環境，資(zi)金很可能成(cheng)為行(xing)業(ye)(ye)集中(zhong)(zhong)度(du)加速集中(zhong)(zhong)的觸發因素。

　　我(wo)(wo)們沒(mei)必要(yao)那么悲觀。無(wu)論是(shi)成(cheng)長(chang)，還(huan)是(shi)價值(zhi)，估值(zhi)與業績的(de)組合偏好(hao)是(shi)投(tou)資的(de)重要(yao)考量。建筑公司業績韌性較好(hao)，估值(zhi)的(de)不斷消化本身就是(shi)投(tou)資機會(hui)的(de)孕育。在建筑行業邏(luo)輯出現邊際修(xiu)復前，我(wo)(wo)們可以選擇(ze)繼續等待，但對前景，我(wo)(wo)們并不悲觀。

　　行(xing)情回顧總結(jie)(jie)：上周（2018.7.2-2018.7.6）建筑(zhu)工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)指數下跌(die)(die)(die)4.19%，遜于同(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)上證綜指3.52%的跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)；年初(chu)至今，建筑(zhu)指數累計跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)為24.67%，遜于同(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)上證指數16.93%的跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)，在29 個行(xing)業中位(wei)居24/29。分(fen)板(ban)(ban)塊看，本周國際工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)板(ban)(ban)塊表現相對較(jiao)好，單周跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)為0.71%，其次是園(yuan)林，單周跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)為2.57%；漲跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)末三(san)位(wei)的是房建、專業工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)和工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)咨詢，期(qi)(qi)(qi)間(jian)(jian)跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)分(fen)別為7.04%、5.46%和5.39%；基建板(ban)(ban)塊期(qi)(qi)(qi)間(jian)(jian)跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)為2.68%，鋼(gang)結(jie)(jie)構板(ban)(ban)塊期(qi)(qi)(qi)間(jian)(jian)跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)為3.96%，化學工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)板(ban)(ban)塊期(qi)(qi)(qi)間(jian)(jian)跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)為4.23%，石(shi)油工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)板(ban)(ban)塊期(qi)(qi)(qi)間(jian)(jian)跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)為4.48%，裝飾板(ban)(ban)塊期(qi)(qi)(qi)間(jian)(jian)跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)為4.84%。

　　投資策略：行業(ye)(ye)政策預期(qi)邊際改善，但信號(hao)尚不明顯。人民幣(bi)匯率貶值對國際工程(cheng)是(shi)實質性(xing)利(li)好，然而海外工程(cheng)整體進度(du)相(xiang)對較(jiao)慢。這個(ge)時候可以(yi)關注一(yi)些被錯(cuo)殺(sha)的優質個(ge)股(gu)。我們建(jian)(jian)議關注受(shou)益(yi)公裝(zhuang)復(fu)蘇(su)和家裝(zhuang)模式逐步成熟的金螳(tang)螂和東易日(ri)盛；低估(gu)值并且業(ye)(ye)績增長(chang)確定(ding)性(xing)高(gao)的建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)央企，如(ru)中國建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)、葛洲(zhou)壩；業(ye)(ye)績高(gao)增長(chang)確定(ding)性(xing)較(jiao)強的文科(ke)園(yuan)林。

　　風險(xian)提示(shi)：訂單落地推遲風險(xian)、回款風險(xian)、融資持續收緊(jin)。