研究(jiu)報告(gao)內容摘要：

　　建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)倉位(wei)再(zai)次(ci)處于近(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)最低(di)(di)(di)(di)。近(jin)(jin)期基(ji)(ji)(ji)金(jin)(jin)中(zhong)報披露完(wan)畢，我們對(dui)此進行簡要分(fen)析：1）6月(yue)底(di)基(ji)(ji)(ji)金(jin)(jin)對(dui)建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)板塊(kuai)配(pei)置(zhi)比例(li)(li)較(jiao)3月(yue)底(di)降低(di)(di)(di)(di)，配(pei)置(zhi)比例(li)(li)創2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)以來新低(di)(di)(di)(di)。2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)基(ji)(ji)(ji)金(jin)(jin)中(zhong)報基(ji)(ji)(ji)本披露完(wan)畢，2020Q2末全部基(ji)(ji)(ji)金(jin)(jin)在(zai)建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)業持倉占凈(jing)值比例(li)(li)0.16%，占股票市(shi)值比例(li)(li)0.81%；低(di)(di)(di)(di)于標配(pei)1.96%水平(ping)，相(xiang)(xiang)比2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)一(yi)季度末的(de)1.39%有(you)所降低(di)(di)(di)(di)，配(pei)置(zhi)比例(li)(li)創2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)以來新低(di)(di)(di)(di)。2）基(ji)(ji)(ji)金(jin)(jin)重(zhong)倉個股比較(jiao)集(ji)中(zhong)。截止(zhi)到2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)6月(yue)底(di)，建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)板塊(kuai)全部基(ji)(ji)(ji)金(jin)(jin)重(zhong)倉個股中(zhong)，按照市(shi)值排(pai)行位(wei)列前五的(de)分(fen)別(bie)為(wei)中(zhong)國(guo)建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)（39.08億元(yuan)）、鴻(hong)路鋼構(gou)（16.77億元(yuan)）、中(zhong)國(guo)中(zhong)鐵(tie)（13.10億元(yuan)）、中(zhong)國(guo)鐵(tie)建(jian)(jian)（11.98億元(yuan)）、中(zhong)國(guo)電建(jian)(jian)（9.41億元(yuan)）；按照持有(you)市(shi)值占流通盤比例(li)(li)排(pai)行，位(wei)列前五的(de)分(fen)別(bie)為(wei)鴻(hong)路鋼構(gou)（15.52%）、亞廈股份（4.68%）、三聯虹普（2.87%）、中(zhong)國(guo)電建(jian)(jian)（2.44%）、精工鋼構(gou)（2.10%）。從(cong)重(zhong)倉持股情況(kuang)看，對(dui)個股的(de)配(pei)置(zhi)數量相(xiang)(xiang)對(dui)較(jiao)少，并且比較(jiao)集(ji)中(zhong)。基(ji)(ji)(ji)金(jin)(jin)對(dui)建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)板塊(kuai)倉位(wei)配(pei)置(zhi)較(jiao)低(di)(di)(di)(di)，反(fan)映市(shi)場對(dui)基(ji)(ji)(ji)建(jian)(jian)的(de)預(yu)期有(you)所下(xia)降。二季度基(ji)(ji)(ji)建(jian)(jian)投(tou)資增速已經(jing)出(chu)現(xian)明顯(xian)改善，我們認為(wei)在(zai)行業出(chu)現(xian)更加積極變(bian)化之前，基(ji)(ji)(ji)金(jin)(jin)倉位(wei)已不(bu)能構(gou)成基(ji)(ji)(ji)建(jian)(jian)行情再(zai)起的(de)充分(fen)條件(jian)。

　　繼續推(tui)薦(jian)裝(zhuang)配(pei)式(shi)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)產業(ye)鏈(lian)。今年(nian)(nian)是裝(zhuang)配(pei)式(shi)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)政(zheng)策目(mu)標(biao)的第一個(ge)時(shi)間(jian)節點，我們認為(wei)行業(ye)趨勢明確。根據住建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)部(bu)《“十三(san)五”裝(zhuang)配(pei)式(shi)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)行動方(fang)案》，要求全面(mian)推(tui)進(jin)裝(zhuang)配(pei)式(shi)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)發展(zhan)，到(dao)(dao)(dao)2020年(nian)(nian)，全國裝(zhuang)配(pei)式(shi)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)占(zhan)新(xin)(xin)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)的比(bi)例(li)(li)達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)15%以上(shang)；而2019年(nian)(nian)這一比(bi)例(li)(li)為(wei)13.4%。同時(shi)，許多地方(fang)政(zheng)府也將2020年(nian)(nian)定為(wei)裝(zhuang)配(pei)式(shi)政(zheng)策目(mu)標(biao)的第一個(ge)時(shi)間(jian)節點，比(bi)如江(jiang)蘇要求2020年(nian)(nian)底(di)全省裝(zhuang)配(pei)式(shi)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)占(zhan)新(xin)(xin)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)面(mian)積(ji)比(bi)例(li)(li)達(da)(da)30%；浙江(jiang)要求2020年(nian)(nian)新(xin)(xin)開工裝(zhuang)配(pei)式(shi)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)7000萬平方(fang)米以上(shang)、占(zhan)新(xin)(xin)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)比(bi)例(li)(li)達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)30%；上(shang)海(hai)2020年(nian)(nian)目(mu)標(biao)為(wei)符合條件(jian)的新(xin)(xin)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)原(yuan)則上(shang)采用裝(zhuang)配(pei)式(shi)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)；江(jiang)西2020年(nian)(nian)目(mu)標(biao)為(wei)采用裝(zhuang)配(pei)式(shi)施工的建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)占(zhan)同期(qi)新(xin)(xin)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)的比(bi)例(li)(li)達(da)(da)30%等。今年(nian)(nian)裝(zhuang)配(pei)式(shi)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)相關企(qi)業(ye)訂(ding)單(dan)均(jun)較(jiao)為(wei)亮眼(yan)。從公(gong)告數據來看，鴻路(lu)鋼構2020年(nian)(nian)1-6月份新(xin)(xin)簽銷售合同額76.25億元，同增9.55%；精工鋼構上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)EPC及裝(zhuang)配(pei)式(shi)業(ye)務累(lei)計(ji)承接訂(ding)單(dan)39.20億元，較(jiao)2019年(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)增加11.43億元，增長比(bi)例(li)(li)41.17%。

　　行情回顧總結(jie)：本(ben)周(zhou)（2020.07.20-2020.07.24）建(jian)筑工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)指數(shu)上升0.13%，同期上證(zheng)綜(zong)指下跌0.54%；2020年初至今，建(jian)筑指數(shu)累計上漲(zhang)0.62%，同期上證(zheng)綜(zong)指上漲(zhang)4.81%，在29個行業中位居22/29。分板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)看，本(ben)周(zhou)鋼結(jie)構板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)表現相對較好，單周(zhou)漲(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)2.80%，其(qi)次是專業工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)，單周(zhou)漲(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)2.04%；漲(zhang)跌幅(fu)(fu)末(mo)三位的(de)是園林、房(fang)建(jian)和基建(jian)板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)，區間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)漲(zhang)跌幅(fu)(fu)分別為(wei)-1.74%、-0.79%和-0.29%；裝飾板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)區間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)漲(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)為(wei)1.93%，化學工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)為(wei)1.20%，石油工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)區間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)漲(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)為(wei)0.78%，國際工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)區間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)漲(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)為(wei)0.62%，工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)咨詢(xun)板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)區間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)漲(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)為(wei)0.44%。

　　投資策略：建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)行業基(ji)本面穩健，并(bing)且(qie)建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)板塊目前(qian)存在明(ming)顯的“三低”特征（低估值、低漲(zhang)幅(fu)、低持倉），行業關(guan)注度有望持續提升(sheng)，我們認為(wei)主要關(guan)注以(yi)下方面：1）明(ming)顯受(shou)益于(yu)裝配(pei)式政(zheng)策的鋼(gang)(gang)結(jie)構板塊，如(ru)鴻路鋼(gang)(gang)構、精工鋼(gang)(gang)構；2）政(zheng)策相對受(shou)益明(ming)顯的基(ji)建(jian)(jian)鏈條(tiao)，關(guan)注優勢(shi)明(ming)顯的基(ji)建(jian)(jian)央(yang)企如(ru)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)鐵建(jian)(jian)、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)鐵、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)電建(jian)(jian)、葛洲壩等(deng)，以(yi)及估值回落的民營設計龍(long)頭中(zhong)(zhong)設集(ji)團、蘇(su)交科；3）業績增長穩定，估值回落至歷(li)史較(jiao)低水平，長期受(shou)益集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)度提升(sheng)的龍(long)頭公司，關(guan)注金螳螂、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)等(deng)。

　　風險(xian)提示：投資(zi)增速加(jia)速下行、政策落地(di)不(bu)及預期風險(xian)。