事件描述

　　2020年(nian)6月15日，國(guo)家統計(ji)局(ju)公布(bu)2020年(nian)5月發(fa)電量(liang)數據：5月份全(quan)國(guo)統計(ji)口徑(jing)發(fa)電機組發(fa)電量(liang)達到(dao)5932億(yi)千瓦時，同比(bi)增長(chang)4.3%；1-5月份全(quan)國(guo)統計(ji)口徑(jing)發(fa)電機組發(fa)電量(liang)達到(dao)27325億(yi)千瓦時，同比(bi)降低3.1%。

　　事件評論

　　1-5月(yue)(yue)，全國統計(ji)口(kou)徑(jing)發電機組(zu)發電量達到27325億千瓦時，同(tong)(tong)比降(jiang)低3.1%，相較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)降(jiang)低6.4個(ge)百(bai)分點，其中5月(yue)(yue)份發電量同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長4.3%，增(zeng)速(su)較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)提(ti)高(gao)4.1個(ge)百(bai)分點，除高(gao)溫推動制冷需(xu)求增(zeng)長外，亦受益(yi)于我國工業生(sheng)產行為加速(su)復蘇，5月(yue)(yue)規模以上(shang)(shang)工業增(zeng)加值在上(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)由(you)負(fu)轉正基礎(chu)上(shang)(shang)繼續回升(sheng)，生(sheng)產用電需(xu)求帶(dai)動發電量繼續修復。

　　高(gao)溫(wen)及工業生(sheng)產(chan)修復(fu)助火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)出(chu)力(li)(li)，旱(han)情(qing)延續(xu)(xu)水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)延續(xu)(xu)負增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)。5月(yue)(yue)(yue)云南部分(fen)地區旱(han)情(qing)持續(xu)(xu)發(fa)展，局(ju)地降水偏少(shao)8成以上(shang)(shang)；去年(nian)同(tong)期基(ji)數較(jiao)(jiao)高(gao)，從而(er)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)下降16.5%，降幅較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)擴大7.3個百分(fen)點。非水清(qing)潔能源電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源中(zhong)，5月(yue)(yue)(yue)核能發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)為(wei)311億(yi)千(qian)瓦時(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)14.3%；風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)為(wei)396億(yi)千(qian)瓦時(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)5.2%，主要受益于裝(zhuang)機規(gui)模維持穩定(ding)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)。5月(yue)(yue)(yue)份火(huo)力(li)(li)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)為(wei)4235億(yi)千(qian)瓦時(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)9.0%，增(zeng)速較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)提升7.8個百分(fen)點；1-5月(yue)(yue)(yue)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)累(lei)計發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)降幅繼續(xu)(xu)收窄。2020年(nian)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)，全國(guo)平均(jun)氣溫(wen)為(wei)17.2℃，較(jiao)(jiao)常(chang)年(nian)同(tong)期偏高(gao)1℃，為(wei)1961年(nian)以來歷史同(tong)期第四(si)高(gao)，高(gao)溫(wen)推動制冷需求(qiu)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)。復(fu)工復(fu)產(chan)深入推進，我國(guo)工業生(sheng)產(chan)行為(wei)加(jia)速復(fu)蘇(su)，5月(yue)(yue)(yue)規(gui)模以上(shang)(shang)工業增(zeng)加(jia)值同(tong)比(bi)實(shi)際(ji)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)4.4%，增(zeng)速較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)加(jia)快0.5個百分(fen)點，在(zai)上(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)由(you)負轉正(zheng)基(ji)礎上(shang)(shang)繼續(xu)(xu)回升，生(sheng)產(chan)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)需求(qiu)帶(dai)動火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)繼續(xu)(xu)修復(fu)。

　　投(tou)資(zi)建議：隨著(zhu)復(fu)工復(fu)產(chan)(chan)加速(su)推進(jin)，5月發(fa)電(dian)量同比增(zeng)速(su)繼續回升，且(qie)未來發(fa)電(dian)量將隨著(zhu)宏觀(guan)經濟(ji)復(fu)蘇存在較大邊際改善(shan)空間。當(dang)前時(shi)點，我(wo)們認(ren)為具有一(yi)定逆周期(qi)性和投(tou)資(zi)防御(yu)性的(de)(de)(de)公用事(shi)業(ye)板塊有望走出(chu)穩健(jian)行(xing)情。在疫情徹底消(xiao)除(chu)前，各地生產(chan)(chan)復(fu)工節奏仍將有所(suo)分(fen)化(hua)，疊加企業(ye)資(zi)產(chan)(chan)分(fen)布的(de)(de)(de)地域(yu)差異，結構性行(xing)情將會在未來相當(dang)長(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)(de)時(shi)間內持續存在。當(dang)前煤價(jia)中(zhong)樞(shu)支撐進(jin)一(yi)步弱化(hua)，火電(dian)行(xing)業(ye)及公司(si)業(ye)績有望延續改善(shan)趨勢，個(ge)股推薦業(ye)績相對煤價(jia)敏感(gan)性較高的(de)(de)(de)華電(dian)國際、華能(neng)國際和水火兼濟(ji)的(de)(de)(de)國投(tou)電(dian)力(li)；水電(dian)板塊經營穩健(jian)、注重(zhong)分(fen)紅回報、具備優異的(de)(de)(de)投(tou)資(zi)防御(yu)性，個(ge)股推薦擁(yong)有長(chang)(chang)期(qi)成長(chang)(chang)空間的(de)(de)(de)行(xing)業(ye)龍頭(tou)長(chang)(chang)江電(dian)力(li)。

　　風險提示：1.電力供(gong)需惡化風險；

　　2.煤炭價格出現(xian)非季(ji)節性(xing)上漲風(feng)險。