研究(jiu)報告(gao)內容摘要：

　　投資要點

　　5月全社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+4.6%，三產(chan)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)增速(su)(su)(su)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)升11.3pct。1-5月，全社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)2.72萬億(yi)(yi)千瓦時，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)-2.85%，增速(su)(su)(su)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)滑7.8pct，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)回升1.89pct；5月份，全社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)5926億(yi)(yi)千瓦時，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+4.6%，增速(su)(su)(su)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)升3.9pct。第一產(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)69億(yi)(yi)千瓦時，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+15.5%，增速(su)(su)(su)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)升7.7pct；第二產(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)4176億(yi)(yi)千瓦時，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+2.9%，增速(su)(su)(su)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)升1.6pct；第三產(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)890億(yi)(yi)千瓦時，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+3.6%，增速(su)(su)(su)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)升11.3pct；城鄉居民生活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)791億(yi)(yi)千瓦時，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+15.0%，增速(su)(su)(su)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)升8.5pct。

　　1~5月份(fen)內(nei)(nei)陸用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)數(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)整體(ti)強勁，部分(fen)沿(yan)海省份(fen)單月用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)數(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)修(xiu)復顯(xian)著。分(fen)省來看，1~5月份(fen)分(fen)省用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)數(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)兩極分(fen)化明(ming)顯(xian)：內(nei)(nei)陸地區中，云南(nan)、新疆、內(nei)(nei)蒙、甘肅、西藏用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)增(zeng)速(su)(su)排名靠(kao)前，增(zeng)速(su)(su)分(fen)別為(wei)7.4%/5.3%/4.9%/4.8%/1.5%，遠超全社(she)(she)會用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)平均增(zeng)速(su)(su)-2.9%；沿(yan)海地區中，浙江(jiang)、江(jiang)蘇、上(shang)海、廣(guang)東用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)增(zeng)速(su)(su)排名靠(kao)后，增(zeng)速(su)(su)分(fen)別為(wei)-8.3%/-7.2%/-7.2%/-4.6%，均低于(yu)全社(she)(she)會用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)速(su)(su)。5月部分(fen)沿(yan)海省份(fen)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)數(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)修(xiu)復顯(xian)著：廣(guang)西、廣(guang)東、海南(nan)單月用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)增(zeng)速(su)(su)分(fen)別為(wei)13.2%/9.3%/9.3%，遠超單月全社(she)(she)會用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)平均增(zeng)速(su)(su)4.6%。

　　5月高(gao)載(zai)能行(xing)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)增速(su)環(huan)(huan)比提升0.8pct。5月份(fen)(fen)，四大(da)高(gao)載(zai)能行(xing)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)同比增速(su)+2.3%，增速(su)環(huan)(huan)比提升0.8pct，其中(zhong)化(hua)(hua)學(xue)原料制品(pin)(pin)、非金(jin)屬(shu)(shu)礦物(wu)制品(pin)(pin)、黑(hei)色(se)金(jin)屬(shu)(shu)冶(ye)煉(lian)和有色(se)金(jin)屬(shu)(shu)冶(ye)煉(lian)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)增速(su)環(huan)(huan)比變化(hua)(hua)分別為-2.3pct /+7.6pct/+1.4pct /-2.1pct。1~5月份(fen)(fen)，四大(da)高(gao)載(zai)能行(xing)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)同比-3.2%，增速(su)環(huan)(huan)比+1.5pct，其中(zhong)化(hua)(hua)學(xue)原料制品(pin)(pin)、非金(jin)屬(shu)(shu)礦物(wu)制品(pin)(pin)、黑(hei)色(se)金(jin)屬(shu)(shu)冶(ye)煉(lian)和有色(se)金(jin)屬(shu)(shu)冶(ye)煉(lian)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)增速(su)環(huan)(huan)比變化(hua)(hua)分別為+0.7pct /+5.0pct /+1.4pct /+0.5pct。

　　利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)：火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)回(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)3.1pct，核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)回(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)2.3pct。1-5月(yue)，全(quan)國發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設備累計平均利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)1405小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)-7.5%（增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)回(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)1.9pct）。分類(lei)型(xing)看(kan)，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)為(wei)1138小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)-12.46%（增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)滑2.7pct）；火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)為(wei)1602小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)-7.29%（增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)回(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)3.1pct）；核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)為(wei)2868小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)+1.02%（增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)回(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)2.3pct）；風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)為(wei)958小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)-2.04%（增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)回(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)0.8pct）；太陽能(neng)利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)為(wei)550小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)+3.38%（增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)滑0.1pct）。

　　1~5月(yue)風(feng)電(dian)發電(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+5.0%，光伏發電(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+9.3%。1-5月(yue)份，全國規模以上(shang)電(dian)廠發電(dian)量(liang)(liang)2.73萬億千(qian)瓦(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)-3.1%，增(zeng)速(su)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)(hua)6.4pct；水(shui)電(dian)發電(dian)量(liang)(liang)3558億千(qian)瓦(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)-11.3%，增(zeng)速(su)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)(hua)24.1pct；火電(dian)發電(dian)量(liang)(liang)2.00萬億千(qian)瓦(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)-3.1%，增(zeng)速(su)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)(hua)3.3pct；核電(dian)發電(dian)量(liang)(liang)1398億千(qian)瓦(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+5.9%，增(zeng)速(su)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)(hua)18.4pct；風(feng)能(neng)發電(dian)量(liang)(liang)1786億千(qian)瓦(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+5.0%，增(zeng)速(su)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)(hua)0.6pct；太陽能(neng)發電(dian)量(liang)(liang)573億千(qian)瓦(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+9.3%，增(zeng)速(su)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)(hua)2.6pct。

　　全(quan)國6000千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)及以(yi)上(shang)電(dian)廠裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量同比(bi)(bi)+5.3%，增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)持(chi)平(ping)。截至2020年(nian)5月(yue)底，全(quan)國6000千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)及以(yi)上(shang)電(dian)廠裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量19.25億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，同比(bi)(bi)+5.3%，增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)持(chi)平(ping)。水(shui)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量3.14億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，同比(bi)(bi)+2.1%，增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)+0.1pct。火電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量11.96億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，同比(bi)(bi)+4.0%，增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)+0.1pct。核電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量0.49億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，同比(bi)(bi)+6.2%，增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)持(chi)平(ping)。風電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量2.14億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，同比(bi)(bi)+12.4%，增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)-0.2pct。光伏裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量1.52億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，同比(bi)(bi)+13.9%，增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)-0.4pct。

　　風險(xian)提(ti)示：電(dian)價(jia)下調風險(xian)，利用小時下降風險(xian)，煤炭價(jia)格波動風險(xian)。