目(mu)前來看,內外油(you)脂市場供(gong)應過剩將在中長期壓(ya)制價格,但隨(sui)著四季度油(you)脂進入消費旺季,屆時(shi)價格有望(wang)企穩回升,密切關(guan)注原油(you)價格波動。
下半(ban)年(nian)棕(zong)櫚(lv)油(you)(you)供(gong)需將由松(song)趨緊(jin)。目前棕(zong)櫚(lv)油(you)(you)產(chan)量(liang)尚未達到高峰,偏(pian)空(kong)邏輯仍在。不過,后期(qi)隨著10-11月(yue)(yue)東南亞(ya)進入(ru)雨季(ji),棕(zong)櫚(lv)油(you)(you)將進入(ru)一年(nian)一度的減產(chan)周期(qi),屆時寬(kuan)松(song)程度才(cai)將逐漸收斂。關(guan)于棕(zong)櫚(lv)油(you)(you)復(fu)產(chan)時間節奏,3月(yue)(yue)馬(ma)來西(xi)亞(ya)雨季(ji)結(jie)束(shu),棕(zong)櫚(lv)油(you)(you)開始復(fu)產(chan),5-6月(yue)(yue)因(yin)(yin)值(zhi)齋(zhai)月(yue)(yue)假(jia)期(qi)增(zeng)多(duo)放(fang)緩(huan)油(you)(you)棕(zong)果收割等因(yin)(yin)素產(chan)量(liang)回(hui)落,齋(zhai)月(yue)(yue)結(jie)束(shu)后,馬(ma)來西(xi)亞(ya)棕(zong)櫚(lv)油(you)(you)產(chan)量(liang)7-8月(yue)(yue)重新(xin)恢復(fu),預(yu)(yu)計(ji)環比將上升但同比下降,因(yin)(yin)老樹翻種率(lv)上升,而10月(yue)(yue)馬(ma)來西(xi)亞(ya)將進入(ru)雨季(ji),預(yu)(yu)計(ji)馬(ma)來西(xi)亞(ya)棕(zong)油(you)(you)達到峰值(zhi)后進入(ru)減產(chan)周期(qi),且降速較出(chu)口相對快些,故將對價(jia)(jia)格長期(qi)形成(cheng)提振。因(yin)(yin)此,市場(chang)供(gong)應壓力(li)三(san)季(ji)度趨于上升但增(zeng)幅有限,四季(ji)度回(hui)落,料棕(zong)櫚(lv)油(you)(you)價(jia)(jia)格呈先震蕩后升態勢。
盡管棕櫚(lv)(lv)(lv)油(you)需求(qiu)回(hui)暖,但產量過剩導致棕櫚(lv)(lv)(lv)油(you)期(qi)末(mo)庫存積累迅速(su)。USDA最新數據顯示,2017/2018年度(du)全球(qiu)棕櫚(lv)(lv)(lv)油(you)期(qi)末(mo)庫存增加15%至(zhi)1078萬噸新高(gao),庫存消費比為17%,處于歷(li)史高(gao)位,將壓制(zhi)三季(ji)度(du)棕櫚(lv)(lv)(lv)油(you)價格,四季(ji)度(du)隨(sui)著(zhu)馬來西(xi)亞進入雨季(ji),棕櫚(lv)(lv)(lv)油(you)產量減少,庫存呈下滑態勢(shi)。
2018年上半年,國內(nei)油(you)脂庫(ku)存處(chu)于歷史(shi)高位,同(tong)比2017年呈現增長(chang)之(zhi)勢,整體供應明顯(xian)高于2017年同(tong)期,其中豆油(you)、棕油(you)增幅明顯(xian),菜油(you)庫(ku)存處(chu)于低位。
對于未(wei)來供(gong)應(ying),預(yu)計(ji)三(san)季度(du)(du)(du)油脂(zhi)供(gong)應(ying)將(jiang)呈上(shang)(shang)升(sheng),而四季度(du)(du)(du)壓力或逐漸下降(jiang),主(zhu)要原因包括兩方面:其一,6-9月大(da)豆到港(gang)量龐大(da),預(yu)計(ji)高于去年(nian)(nian)同期(qi),伴隨著壓榨(zha)(zha)廠(chang)(chang)高開(kai)工,三(san)季度(du)(du)(du)油廠(chang)(chang)庫存進(jin)入上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)周期(qi),四季度(du)(du)(du)有(you)望呈季節性下降(jiang)趨(qu)勢(shi);其二(er),進(jin)口菜(cai)籽(zi)壓榨(zha)(zha)利(li)潤豐厚,下半年(nian)(nian)菜(cai)籽(zi)進(jin)口量預(yu)計(ji)增(zeng)加,菜(cai)籽(zi)供(gong)應(ying)有(you)保障,三(san)季度(du)(du)(du)菜(cai)油庫存隨之(zhi)增(zeng)加。
需求(qiu)端,三季(ji)度(du)仍是(shi)食用(yong)油消費淡季(ji),對價(jia)(jia)格不構成(cheng)支撐,四季(ji)度(du)隨節(jie)假日增多(duo),油脂(zhi)進入傳統消費旺季(ji),對價(jia)(jia)格形(xing)成(cheng)提振。
綜上(shang),在(zai)(zai)三季(ji)度(du)(du),在(zai)(zai)馬棕(zong)產量攀(pan)升至峰值、出口(kou)疲弱、國內(nei)油(you)脂(zhi)庫存繼續增加的影(ying)響下,油(you)脂(zhi)市場供過于(yu)求基(ji)本面難以改變,但不(bu)宜(yi)過分看(kan)空(kong),因棕(zong)油(you)產量增幅(fu)有限,預計油(you)脂(zhi)價格呈區間震蕩運行(xing)。而(er)進入四季(ji)度(du)(du),在(zai)(zai)油(you)脂(zhi)進入消費(fei)旺季(ji)、外圍棕(zong)櫚油(you)減(jian)產、國內(nei)油(you)脂(zhi)庫存壓力緩解影(ying)響相互(hu)疊加下,預計價格在(zai)(zai)三季(ji)度(du)(du)基(ji)礎上(shang)企穩回升或(huo)形成(cheng)一波趨(qu)勢性(xing)行(xing)情,密切關注棕(zong)櫚油(you)減(jian)產幅(fu)度(du)(du)、原油(you)價格及(ji)生柴增產能(neng)否落地。
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