對比(bi)(bi)去(qu)年,盡管目前(qian)棉價處于(yu)低位震蕩區間,但(dan)是基(ji)本面(mian)上(shang)的變(bian)化卻很少(shao),其中產量基(ji)本與(yu)去(qu)年持平或略有(you)波(bo)動(dong),國儲輪出(chu)如期進(jin)行后降(jiang)至相對低位,棉花基(ji)本面(mian)依舊整體向好,但(dan)與(yu)之前(qian)年度(du)相比(bi)(bi)也確(que)實有(you)一(yi)些因素發(fa)生了改變(bian),主要就(jiu)是市場對消費與(yu)進(jin)口預期的改變(bian)。
消費下滑空間有限
強勢增長的(de)棉花(hua)消費一(yi)直是(shi)(shi)近幾(ji)年(nian)支撐(cheng)棉花(hua)價(jia)格(ge)的(de)主要因素之一(yi),但(dan)是(shi)(shi)進入2018-2019年(nian)度(du)之后(hou)宏觀經(jing)濟下(xia)行壓力使(shi)得市(shi)場對消費的(de)預期(qi)發生了(le)改(gai)變,預計本年(nian)度(du)的(de)棉花(hua)消費很可能將一(yi)改(gai)自2015-2016年(nian)度(du)就開始延續的(de)高速(su)增長態勢轉而(er)向下(xia)運行。
的(de)(de)確(que),自2018年(nian)年(nian)初以來(lai)紡(fang)(fang)織(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品服(fu)(fu)裝(zhuang)的(de)(de)零(ling)售額(e)就(jiu)呈(cheng)現出持(chi)(chi)續下(xia)滑(hua)態勢,而當外部(bu)因素開(kai)始反(fan)映到(dao)現實中(zhong),2018年(nian)11-12月紡(fang)(fang)織(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品服(fu)(fu)裝(zhuang)出口(kou)銷售額(e)同比(bi)(bi)也(ye)出現明(ming)顯下(xia)滑(hua)時(shi),擾(rao)動了(le)市場對(dui)未來(lai)棉花消費(fei)(fei)的(de)(de)預期(qi)。宏觀經濟對(dui)消費(fei)(fei)的(de)(de)影響是(shi)(shi)(shi)顯而易見的(de)(de),但(dan)其(qi)中(zhong)經濟下(xia)行(xing)帶來(lai)的(de)(de)消費(fei)(fei)下(xia)滑(hua)應該是(shi)(shi)(shi)緩慢的(de)(de),相比(bi)(bi)之下(xia)外部(bu)因素的(de)(de)影響會更加迅速與直接(jie),尤其(qi)是(shi)(shi)(shi)在市場情(qing)緒普遍悲觀的(de)(de)時(shi)候。盡(jin)管(guan)中(zhong)國(guo)紡(fang)(fang)織(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品服(fu)(fu)裝(zhuang)出口(kou)量(liang)的(de)(de)確(que)很大(da),但(dan)結合整體(ti)(ti)出口(kou)和內(nei)銷數(shu)據(ju)來(lai)看(kan)占比(bi)(bi)依(yi)舊是(shi)(shi)(shi)有(you)(you)限的(de)(de)。再者(zhe),雖然近幾年(nian)東(dong)南亞(ya)的(de)(de)紡(fang)(fang)織(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)服(fu)(fu)裝(zhuang)產業(ye)(ye)發展迅速,但(dan)是(shi)(shi)(shi)中(zhong)國(guo)在該產業(ye)(ye)無論是(shi)(shi)(shi)體(ti)(ti)量(liang)與成本上面依(yi)舊擁有(you)(you)不可替代的(de)(de)競爭力,也(ye)就(jiu)是(shi)(shi)(shi)說即使外部(bu)擾(rao)動持(chi)(chi)續,但(dan)是(shi)(shi)(shi)產業(ye)(ye)資源在全球的(de)(de)重新配置也(ye)需要時(shi)間。因此,2018-2019年(nian)度(du)消費(fei)(fei)是(shi)(shi)(shi)很可能會下(xia)滑(hua),但(dan)是(shi)(shi)(shi)下(xia)滑(hua)的(de)(de)空間有(you)(you)限。
價格重心有望上移
而另(ling)一個預期改變(bian)的(de)因素就是進(jin)口,因為(wei)我國(guo)對(dui)棉(mian)(mian)花實行(xing)的(de)是進(jin)口配額制度(du),所以近幾年(nian)(nian)(nian)國(guo)內的(de)棉(mian)(mian)花進(jin)口量(liang)持續穩定在100萬噸(dun)(dun)上下(xia),但是去年(nian)(nian)(nian)為(wei)維持棉(mian)(mian)價穩定而下(xia)放的(de)80萬噸(dun)(dun)滑(hua)準稅(shui)配額與滑(hua)準稅(shui)稅(shui)率的(de)下(xia)調使(shi)得(de)市(shi)場(chang)對(dui)本(ben)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)棉(mian)(mian)花進(jin)口量(liang)的(de)預估達到(dao)了160萬噸(dun)(dun)。在消費下(xia)滑(hua)的(de)背(bei)景(jing)下(xia),棉(mian)(mian)花進(jin)口量(liang)的(de)大幅增(zeng)加(jia)將很大程度(du)上軋平棉(mian)(mian)價核心支撐要素供需缺(que)口。
在(zai)(zai)(zai)國(guo)(guo)內(nei)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花產(chan)銷缺口(kou)(kou)常態化、國(guo)(guo)儲庫存持(chi)續下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)背(bei)景下(xia)(xia),棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)加是(shi)必然(ran)的(de)(de)(de)(de)。但是(shi)本年(nian)(nian)度進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)配額的(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)加卻是(shi)特定(ding)環(huan)境做(zuo)出(chu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)應(ying)(ying)急(ji)之舉(ju),尤其(qi)(qi)是(shi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花庫存仍相對(dui)充足、新棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)開始大量(liang)上市的(de)(de)(de)(de)時(shi)候,這使得短(duan)期棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花的(de)(de)(de)(de)供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)壓力(li)進(jin)(jin)(jin)一步擴大。但是(shi)結合全球(qiu)供(gong)(gong)(gong)需來(lai)看(kan)(kan),進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)壓力(li)可能是(shi)只停留(liu)在(zai)(zai)(zai)預期上面。2018-2019年(nian)(nian)度全球(qiu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)情況(kuang)并不算太好(hao),首先(xian)美(mei)國(guo)(guo)方面,由于(yu)天氣原(yuan)因,棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花產(chan)量(liang)與(yu)質量(liang)均存在(zai)(zai)(zai)著明顯(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua);再者印(yin)度方面,盡管(guan)美(mei)國(guo)(guo)農業部數據缺乏,但其(qi)(qi)國(guo)(guo)內(nei)已(yi)經將(jiang)本年(nian)(nian)度棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花產(chan)量(liang)下(xia)(xia)調到(dao)570萬(wan)(wan)噸以下(xia)(xia),并且由于(yu)其(qi)(qi)自身良好(hao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)庫存及(ji)MSP支撐,印(yin)度棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)價持(chi)續高(gao)位(wei)運行;此外,由于(yu)干旱,市場對(dui)澳大利(li)亞(ya)的(de)(de)(de)(de)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花產(chan)量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)預估(gu)也已(yi)經調整到(dao)了50萬(wan)(wan)噸附近(jin);巴西棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花的(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)產(chan)可能是(shi)本年(nian)(nian)度全球(qiu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要(yao)(yao)補充,但其(qi)(qi)本年(nian)(nian)度的(de)(de)(de)(de)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花出(chu)口(kou)(kou)已(yi)經臨近(jin)尾聲。因此,就(jiu)全球(qiu)范圍的(de)(de)(de)(de)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花可供(gong)(gong)(gong)資源來(lai)看(kan)(kan),盡管(guan)國(guo)(guo)內(nei)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)配額增(zeng)加,但是(shi)要(yao)(yao)落實(shi)到(dao)實(shi)際的(de)(de)(de)(de)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花采購上面仍存在(zai)(zai)(zai)著很(hen)大的(de)(de)(de)(de)疑問(wen)。
整(zheng)體來看,在(zai)內需與外貿(mao)均承壓的(de)(de)背景下棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)消(xiao)費的(de)(de)下滑是(shi)客觀事實(shi),但(dan)是(shi)其(qi)幅(fu)度(du)(du)依舊是(shi)可(ke)控(kong)的(de)(de);另一方面進口量的(de)(de)增加也(ye)(ye)是(shi)趨勢,但(dan)參照全(quan)球的(de)(de)棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)供(gong)需,內外棉(mian)(mian)緊密度(du)(du)上升(sheng)反(fan)倒很可(ke)能成為其(qi)價格(ge)的(de)(de)另一個(ge)有(you)力支撐。此外,當下存(cun)(cun)在(zai)的(de)(de)工商業庫(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)與倉(cang)單壓力也(ye)(ye)更多是(shi)階(jie)段(duan)性的(de)(de),結合整(zheng)年(nian)度(du)(du)的(de)(de)棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)供(gong)需情(qing)況(kuang),棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)依舊是(shi)去庫(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)邏輯,而國儲庫(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)的(de)(de)持續(xu)下降則給(gei)了棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)價格(ge)更多的(de)(de)可(ke)變空間。因(yin)此,短(duan)期(qi)(qi)棉(mian)(mian)價可(ke)能仍舊是(shi)階(jie)段(duan)性供(gong)給(gei)壓力與悲(bei)觀消(xiao)費預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)所(suo)主導的(de)(de)低位整(zheng)理,但(dan)是(shi)隨著市場情(qing)緒好轉及訂單恢復(fu),預(yu)(yu)計棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)價格(ge)可(ke)能將回歸其(qi)正常的(de)(de)供(gong)需邏輯,即價格(ge)重心應當是(shi)上移的(de)(de),新棉(mian)(mian)種植、天(tian)氣(qi)條(tiao)件(jian)、國儲政策、結構性供(gong)給(gei)等因(yin)素也(ye)(ye)可(ke)能成為新的(de)(de)推動力。
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