提示聲明:
本文涉及的行業及個股分析來源于券商研究報告,僅為分析人士對該行業及個股的個人觀點,不代表中證網觀點,不作為投資者買賣股票的依據。股市有風險,投資須謹慎。
金禾實業(002597.SZ):中報業績符合預期,未來估值有望提升
事件:公(gong)司發(fa)布2018年中報(bao),報(bao)告期內實現(xian)營業(ye)收入(ru)22.56億(yi)(yi)元,同(tong)(tong)比-0.05%;實現(xian)歸母凈利潤(run)5.43億(yi)(yi)元,同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長12.09%,實現(xian)經營活動產生的現(xian)金(jin)流量凈額(e)3.46億(yi)(yi)元,同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長8.66%,EPS0.96元/股。另外,公(gong)司預計2018年前三季度歸母凈利潤(run)7.14億(yi)(yi)元-8.05億(yi)(yi)元,同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長2.06%-15.06%。
去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)高基數拉低公(gong)司(si)業(ye)績增(zeng)速(su),公(gong)司(si)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)結(jie)構更趨(qu)優化。2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),公(gong)司(si)出售了控股子公(gong)司(si)華(hua)爾泰(tai),其主(zhu)要(yao)業(ye)務為(wei)(wei)大宗(zong)化學品(pin)(pin)的生(sheng)產(chan)和(he)(he)(he)銷(xiao)售,公(gong)司(si)2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)合并(bing)利潤(run)表(biao)中合并(bing)了華(hua)爾泰(tai)2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1-5月的業(ye)績,因此(ci),若剔(ti)除2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)華(hua)爾泰(tai)并(bing)表(biao)的影響,公(gong)司(si)的營業(ye)收入(ru)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)24.78%,歸母凈利潤(run)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)18.66%,扣非后(hou)歸母凈利潤(run)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)33.69%。公(gong)司(si)2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)大宗(zong)化學品(pin)(pin)實(shi)現銷(xiao)售收入(ru)8.86億(yi)元(yuan),占營業(ye)收入(ru)比(bi)重為(wei)(wei)39.30%,食品(pin)(pin)添加(jia)劑產(chan)品(pin)(pin)實(shi)現營業(ye)收入(ru)為(wei)(wei)9.28億(yi)元(yuan),占公(gong)司(si)營業(ye)收入(ru)比(bi)重為(wei)(wei)41.15%,比(bi)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)增(zeng)長(chang)41.10%,主(zhu)要(yao)原因為(wei)(wei)公(gong)司(si)香(xiang)料和(he)(he)(he)甜味劑產(chan)品(pin)(pin)的價格和(he)(he)(he)銷(xiao)量(三氯蔗糖產(chan)能釋放,銷(xiao)量增(zeng)加(jia))同(tong)比(bi)均由(you)一定(ding)幅度的上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲。從收入(ru)比(bi)重看,公(gong)司(si)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)結(jie)構更趨(qu)優化。另外,值得關注(zhu)的是,上(shang)(shang)(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)公(gong)司(si)研發投(tou)入(ru)4476.78萬元(yuan),同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)359.56%。
周(zhou)期(qi)屬性(xing)弱化(hua)(hua),消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)屬性(xing)明朗(lang),未(wei)來估值有(you)望提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)。公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)精(jing)細(xi)化(hua)(hua)工(gong)產(chan)品(pin)幾乎都是食品(pin)添加(jia)劑,具有(you)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)品(pin)屬性(xing)。精(jing)細(xi)化(hua)(hua)工(gong)產(chan)品(pin)的(de)(de)毛利(li)占(zhan)比已經超過(guo)了基(ji)礎化(hua)(hua)工(gong)產(chan)品(pin)的(de)(de)毛利(li)占(zhan)比。另(ling)外,公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)2017年出售了華爾泰(tai),基(ji)礎化(hua)(hua)工(gong)業務的(de)(de)規模進一(yi)步減少,而未(wei)來隨著定遠(yuan)項目的(de)(de)逐步投產(chan),公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)精(jing)食品(pin)添加(jia)劑的(de)(de)收入將進一(yi)步增加(jia)。認為公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)目前的(de)(de)估值水平(ping)僅(jin)代表了基(ji)礎化(hua)(hua)工(gong)業務的(de)(de)估值水平(ping),而公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)的(de)(de)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)屬性(xing)將逐漸明朗(lang),參考(kao)國(guo)內(nei)食品(pin)添加(jia)劑企(qi)業和國(guo)際香精(jing)香料龍頭企(qi)業的(de)(de)估值水平(ping),認為公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)估值有(you)提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)空間。
盈利(li)預(yu)測與(yu)投資(zi)建議。預(yu)計(ji)2018-2020年(nian)EPS分(fen)(fen)別為(wei)2.00元(yuan)、2.42元(yuan)、2.80元(yuan),未(wei)來(lai)三年(nian)將保持(chi)(chi)16%的(de)復合(he)增(zeng)長率(lv),因(yin)為(wei)對標公司(si)晨光生物、愛普股份、國際香精香料(IFF.N),2018年(nian)估值水平分(fen)(fen)別為(wei)16.39、20.75、35.13倍(bei),因(yin)此給予公司(si)2018年(nian)15倍(bei)估值,對應目標價30.00元(yuan),維持(chi)(chi)“買入(ru)”評級。 (西南證券 黃景文)
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