提示聲明:
本文涉及的行業及個股分析來源于券商研究報告,僅為分析人士對該行業及個股的個人觀點,不代表中證網觀點,不作為投資者買賣股票的依據。股市有風險,投資須謹慎。
中航資本(600705.SH):軍民融合持續深化,金融主業趨勢向好
中(zhong)航集(ji)團(tuan)旗下(xia)(xia)唯一金控(kong)(kong)平(ping)臺(tai),軍工(gong)(gong)背景顯(xian)赫+綜合(he)金融(rong)(rong)業(ye)(ye)績逆勢高增:公(gong)(gong)司第一大(da)股(gu)(gu)東(dong)中(zhong)國(guo)航空(kong)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)集(ji)團(tuan)為(wei)軍工(gong)(gong)系大(da)型央企,作為(wei)集(ji)團(tuan)轄下(xia)(xia)產(chan)(chan)融(rong)(rong)結合(he)的金控(kong)(kong)平(ping)臺(tai),公(gong)(gong)司圍繞(rao)航空(kong)及新興產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)建(jian)立起“綜合(he)金融(rong)(rong)+產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)投資(zi)+國(guo)際業(ye)(ye)務(wu)”三(san)大(da)板(ban)塊,其中(zhong)綜合(he)金融(rong)(rong)為(wei)核(he)心業(ye)(ye)務(wu),涵蓋信托、租賃(lin)、證券、投資(zi)等,完善的牌照(zhao)體(ti)系在金融(rong)(rong)監管全面(mian)(mian)趨(qu)嚴的環境下(xia)(xia)價值尤(you)為(wei)顯(xian)著(zhu)。受(shou)益(yi)于集(ji)團(tuan)豐富的軍工(gong)(gong)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)資(zi)源優勢,公(gong)(gong)司綜合(he)金融(rong)(rong)業(ye)(ye)績優異,2017、2018Q1連續(xu)高增長(chang)20%、49.06%,在多(duo)元(yuan)(yuan)金融(rong)(rong)市場環境承壓的背景下(xia)(xia),基本面(mian)(mian)預期差尤(you)為(wei)顯(xian)著(zhu)。此外,公(gong)(gong)司2017年完成董事長(chang)變更及員(yuan)工(gong)(gong)持(chi)股(gu)(gu)(出(chu)資(zi)1.05億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan),平(ping)均持(chi)股(gu)(gu)成本6.14元(yuan)(yuan)/股(gu)(gu),鎖(suo)定期12個月),當前股(gu)(gu)價安全邊際充足,未來控(kong)(kong)股(gu)(gu)股(gu)(gu)東(dong)擬6個月內(nei)增持(chi)5000萬至3億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan),有望形成催化。
信(xin)托(tuo)發力主(zhu)(zhu)動管(guan)(guan)(guan)理邁入行業(ye)(ye)第一(yi)梯(ti)隊,租賃(lin)(lin)(lin)、財(cai)務(wu)公(gong)司(si)穩健增(zeng)(zeng)長:1)中(zhong)航(hang)信(xin)托(tuo)2017年(nian)末主(zhu)(zhu)動管(guan)(guan)(guan)理規(gui)模同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長21%至(zhi)2930億元(yuan),占比(bi)達45%,帶動2018H1凈利潤同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長26%至(zhi)9.52億元(yuan)(主(zhu)(zhu)要源(yuan)于(yu)信(xin)托(tuo)手續費凈收入增(zeng)(zeng)長44%至(zhi)15.81億元(yuan)),業(ye)(ye)績排(pai)名晉升行業(ye)(ye)第6位(2016/2017年(nian)分別位居第15/11位),綜合競爭實力逐年(nian)提升。“資(zi)管(guan)(guan)(guan)新(xin)規(gui)”時代,信(xin)托(tuo)行業(ye)(ye)通道業(ye)(ye)務(wu)受限(xian),轉型主(zhu)(zhu)動管(guan)(guan)(guan)理迫在(zai)眉睫(jie),公(gong)司(si)已取得先發優(you)勢。2)中(zhong)航(hang)租賃(lin)(lin)(lin)依托(tuo)股東(dong)的航(hang)空產業(ye)(ye)資(zi)源(yuan),在(zai)高壁壘的飛機租賃(lin)(lin)(lin)產業(ye)(ye)鏈建立顯著(zhu)專業(ye)(ye)優(you)勢,2017年(nian)業(ye)(ye)績同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長28%至(zhi)10.2億元(yuan),租賃(lin)(lin)(lin)資(zi)產規(gui)模擴張至(zhi)近(jin)850億元(yuan)。3)中(zhong)航(hang)財(cai)務(wu)受益于(yu)集團資(zi)金集中(zhong)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理,上半年(nian)凈利潤同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長60%至(zhi)5.27億元(yuan)(2017年(nian)末吸收存(cun)款規(gui)模增(zeng)(zeng)長96%至(zhi)1043億元(yuan))。
充分受益(yi)(yi)(yi)軍(jun)民融合(he)+產融結合(he),股(gu)權(quan)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)收(shou)益(yi)(yi)(yi)成(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)(wei)潛在業(ye)績(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)長點(dian):控股(gu)股(gu)東軍(jun)工背景帶(dai)來豐富(fu)的(de)(de)優質投(tou)融資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)項(xiang)目資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)源,公司(si)通過(guo)(guo)旗下平臺直接投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)+加碼私募產業(ye)基金業(ye)務+積(ji)極參(can)與(yu)集團優質定增(zeng)(zeng)項(xiang)目,涉(she)足航空及(ji)新(xin)興產業(ye)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi),目前(qian)已積(ji)累可觀浮盈。認為(wei)(wei)未來股(gu)權(quan)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)的(de)(de)盈利貢(gong)獻(xian)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)更加顯著,此(ci)前(qian)中航新(xin)興產業(ye)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)已通過(guo)(guo)出售(shou)新(xin)興藥業(ye)股(gu)權(quan)兌(dui)現投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)收(shou)益(yi)(yi)(yi)(約2.2億(yi)元),后續預計將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)進一(yi)步發揮產融結合(he)的(de)(de)核心競爭(zheng)優勢(shi)。此(ci)外(wai),公司(si)擬出資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)不(bu)超過(guo)(guo)53億(yi)元認購(gou)廣發銀行(xing)不(bu)超過(guo)(guo)3.88%股(gu)權(quan),預計此(ci)項(xiang)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)未來一(yi)方面將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)增(zeng)(zeng)厚投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)收(shou)益(yi)(yi)(yi),另(ling)一(yi)方面將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)助力公司(si)與(yu)廣發銀行(xing)的(de)(de)單一(yi)大股(gu)東中國人壽在綜(zong)合(he)金融各線領域形成(cheng)(cheng)協同。
盈(ying)利預(yu)測與投資評(ping)級:認為(wei)多元金融整體承壓背(bei)(bei)景下,公(gong)司(si)基本面逆勢(shi)走強存在顯著預(yu)期(qi)差,看好(hao)公(gong)司(si)憑借差異化競爭優勢(shi)(軍工背(bei)(bei)景、產融結(jie)合)實現業(ye)績(ji)持續高增長。預(yu)計公(gong)司(si)2018、2019年凈利潤分(fen)別為(wei)36.22、43.54億元,同比(bi)增速分(fen)別為(wei)30.13%、20.19%,目前估值(zhi)對應約11倍2018PE。未來(lai)隨(sui)著市場企穩(wen)回暖+行業(ye)預(yu)期(qi)改(gai)善,疊(die)加員工持股及股東增持的(de)催化因(yin)素,公(gong)司(si)估值(zhi)有望修(xiu)復,當前股價低位堅定看好(hao),維(wei)持“買(mai)入(ru)”評(ping)級。(東吳證券 胡翔, 馬祥云)
中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)聲明:凡(fan)本網(wang)(wang)(wang)注(zhu)明“來(lai)源:中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)”的所有作(zuo)品,版(ban)權均屬于中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)與(yu)作(zuo)品作(zuo)者(zhe)聯合聲明,任何組織未經中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)以及作(zuo)者(zhe)書面授權不(bu)(bu)得轉(zhuan)載(zai)、摘編或利用(yong)其(qi)它方(fang)式使用(yong)上述作(zuo)品。凡(fan)本網(wang)(wang)(wang)注(zhu)明來(lai)源非中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)報(bao)·中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)證(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)網(wang)(wang)(wang)的作(zuo)品,均轉(zhuan)載(zai)自其(qi)它媒體,轉(zhuan)載(zai)目的在于更(geng)好服務讀(du)者(zhe)、傳(chuan)遞信息之需,并不(bu)(bu)代表(biao)本網(wang)(wang)(wang)贊同其(qi)觀(guan)點,本網(wang)(wang)(wang)亦(yi)不(bu)(bu)對其(qi)真(zhen)實性負責,持異議者(zhe)應與(yu)原出處單(dan)位(wei)主(zhu)張權利。
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